Updated

La Liga · Matchday 10

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

· Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid· Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa

Full time0 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Rayo Vallecano to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Rayo VallecanoDrawElche

Why this pick: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rayo Vallecano 10, Elche 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Rayo VallecanoElche
1.50 xG per 90 1.13
1.50 npxG per 90 1.05
8.6 PPDA 13.7
4.6 Deep completions per 90 5.2
1.38 xPTS per 90 1.03

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceRayo VallecanoDrawElche
Model61%24%15%
Market55%25%21%
Published56%24%19%
Edge+2%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Rayo Vallecano, 26 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.68Now 1.76 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Rayo Vallecano1.681.76+0.08
Draw3.853.90+0.05
Elche4.304.60+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Rayo Vallecano and Elche expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01Rayo Vallecano
0.99Elche
Total expected goals
3.00
Attack rating (Rayo Vallecano / Elche)
1.02 / 0.82
Defence rating (Rayo Vallecano / Elche)
1.04 / 1.23

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.4% 2.6% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1 7.6% 11.3% 4.7% 1.5% 0.5% 2 10.0% 9.9% 4.9% 1.6% 0.5% 3 7.0% 7.0% 3.5% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 6.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3%

Rows: Rayo Vallecano goals. Columns: Elche goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Rayo Vallecano56%1.78
Draw24%4.09
Elche19%5.16
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (Rayo Vallecano or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Elche)44%2.28
Handicap -1Rayo Vallecano win by 2+39%2.54
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Rayo Vallecano and Elche recent form

Rayo Vallecano 2W 2D 2L
Elche 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Rayo Vallecano at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Elche away

Record (W-D-L)
1-3-1
Win rate
20%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
1.20
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 1 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Rayo Vallecano at home only, Elche away only.

Injuries & availability

Rayo Vallecano absences

  • A. Batalla broken calfbone
  • A. Ratiu muscle injury
  • Luiz Felipe knee injury
  • R. Nteka back injury

Elche absences

  • M. Aguado ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Rayo Vallecano lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 25 E. Audero
  2. 17 Adrià Pedrosa
  3. 15 Mujaid Sadick
  4. 24 F. Lejeune
  5. 20 I. Balliu
  6. 8 Unai López
  7. 6 P. Ciss
  8. 4 Pedro Díaz
  9. 18 Álvaro García
  10. 10 Sergio Camello
  11. 19 Jorge de Frutos

Bench: M. Kumbulla, Isi Palazón, Alemão, G. Tsitaishvili, Fran Pérez, Pelayo Fernández, Óscar Valentín, Adrián Molina, J. Vertrouwd, G. Bouare, Rayane Belid

Elche lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 1 M. Dituro
  2. 3 R. Revivo
  3. 23 Víctor Chust
  4. 5 F. Redondo
  5. 2 Buba Sangaré
  6. 18 T. Lemar
  7. 47 J. Morcillo
  8. 12 Gonzalo Villar
  9. 11 Germán Valera
  10. 14 Fer Niño
  11. 21 L. Cepeda

Bench: Bigas, E. Ponce, F. Buonanotte, Alejandro Iturbe, K. Lomónaco, Martim Neto, Josan, G. Diangana, Tete Morente, Rubén Sánchez, A. Osorio, Matia Barzic Gutiérrez

Rayo Vallecano vs Elche head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 4 · draws 2 · Elche 4.

Rayo VallecanoDrawsElche
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-03Rayo Vallecano1-0ElcheLa Liga
2025-12-21Elche4-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2023-04-29Elche4-0Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2022-10-03Rayo Vallecano2-1ElcheLa Liga
2022-02-18Elche2-1Rayo VallecanoLa Liga
2021-10-17Rayo Vallecano2-1ElcheLa Liga
2021-01-16Rayo Vallecano2-0ElcheCopa del Rey
2020-03-08Rayo Vallecano2-3ElcheSegunda División
2019-10-05Elche1-1Rayo VallecanoSegunda División
2017-01-21Rayo Vallecano1-1ElcheSegunda División

Other Matchday 10 fixtures

Before and after this match