Updated

La Liga · Matchday 2

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

· Estadio La Rosaleda, Malaga· Referee Javier Alberola Rojas, Spain

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Malaga to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
MalagaDrawDeportivo La Coruna

Why this pick: Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Malaga 1, Deportivo La Coruna 1). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

MalagaDeportivo La Coruna
0.23 xG per 90 0.34
0.23 npxG per 90 0.34
14.4 PPDA 19.1
3.0 Deep completions per 90 3.0
0.38 xPTS per 90 0.34

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceMalagaDrawDeportivo La Coruna
Model42%32%26%
Market39%32%29%
Published40%32%28%
Edge+1%0%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Malaga, 10 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.55Now 2.45 -0.10
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Malaga2.552.45-0.10
Draw3.053.00-0.05
Deportivo La Coruna3.003.30+0.30

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Malaga
1.04Deportivo La Coruna
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (Malaga / Deportivo La Coruna)
1.10 / 1.07
Defence rating (Malaga / Deportivo La Coruna)
0.87 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.5% 6.8% 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 1 9.7% 15.4% 6.7% 2.3% 0.8% 2 8.4% 8.8% 4.6% 1.6% 0.5% 3 3.8% 4.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 1.8% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 88%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 43%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
51%
No goals (0–0)
12%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Malaga40%2.52
Draw32%3.13
Deportivo La Coruna28%3.54
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543%2.31
Under 2.557%1.76
Both teams to scoreYes51%1.97
No49%2.03
Double chance1X (Malaga or draw)72%1.39
12 (either side)68%1.47
X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna)60%1.66
Handicap -1Malaga win by 2+21%4.77
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Malaga and Deportivo La Coruna recent form

Malaga 3W 2D 1L
Deportivo La Coruna 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Malaga absences

  • A. Nino injury
  • A. Ochoa knee injury
  • D. Murillo injury
  • F. Calero ribs injury
  • M. Diarra calf injury

Deportivo La Coruna absences

  • D. Mella injury
  • D. Villares injury
  • N. Carrillo injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Malaga vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Malaga 3 · draws 5 · Deportivo La Coruna 2.

MalagaDrawsDeportivo La Coruna
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-04Deportivo La Coruna1-1MalagaSegunda División
2025-10-12Malaga3-0Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2025-01-11Malaga1-1Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2024-10-06Deportivo La Coruna0-0MalagaSegunda División
2020-07-08Malaga1-0Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2019-10-20Deportivo La Coruna0-2MalagaSegunda División
2019-06-15Malaga0-1Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2019-06-12Deportivo La Coruna4-2MalagaSegunda División
2019-02-24Malaga0-0Deportivo La CorunaSegunda División
2018-10-07Deportivo La Coruna1-1MalagaSegunda División

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match