Why this pick: Brest vs Nice
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brest vs Nice: model vs market
| Source | Brest | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| Market | 43% | 27% | 30% |
| Published | 46% | 26% | 28% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.10 vs 1.24.
- The market prices Brest below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brest vs Nice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brest, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 2.17 | 2.25 | +0.08 |
| Draw | 3.65 | 3.50 | -0.15 |
| Nice | 3.40 | 3.20 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brest and Nice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Brest / Nice)
- 1.22 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Brest / Nice)
- 1.06 / 1.09
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brest vs Nice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brest vs Nice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brest vs Nice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 46% | 2.19 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Nice | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brest or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Nice) | 54% | 1.84 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win by 2+ | 33% | 3.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brest and Nice recent form
Brest
2W 2D 2L
Nice
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
Nice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.33
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brest at home only, Nice away only.
Injuries & availability
Brest absences
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
- G. Versini leg injury
- R. Le Guen broken leg
Nice absences
-
A. Abdi
muscle injury
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Brest lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 E. Selvik
- 2 B. Locko
- 4 G. Lloris
- 29 L. Tousart
- 70 K. Lala
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 13 J. Chotard
- 9 P. Mboup
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 17 Mama Baldé
- 19 L. Ajorque
Bench: M. Diambou, J. Nonge Boende, N. Edjouma, J. Bourgault, L. Zogbe, Ibrahim Yayiya Kante, M. Patouillet, L. C. Laine M., D. N´Guessan
Nice lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 36 A. Seidu
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 28 A. Witsel
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 92 J. Clauss
- 9 M. Amoura
- 7 G. Hein
- 11 E. Wahi
Bench: M. Sanson, S. Diop, I. Jansson, N. Ngoumou, X. Mandza Tsiendi, D. Coulibaly, D. Morana, T. Boulhendi, H. Koutoune
Brest vs Nice head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Brest 2 · draws 3 · Nice 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Nice | 2-2 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Brest | 4-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Nice | 6-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-11-02 | Brest | 0-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Brest | 0-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-01 | Nice | 0-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Brest | 1-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-11-06 | Nice | 1-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-01-09 | Brest | 0-3 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Lens vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Monaco vs Lille 2026-10-25
- Angers v Lorient — match page 2026-10-25
- Marseille vs Le Havre — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Rennes v Strasbourg — match page 2026-10-25
- Auxerre v Le Mans — match page 2026-10-25
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Brest, previous: Lille v Brest analysis
- Brest, next: Lorient vs Brest prediction
- Nice, previous: Lyon vs Nice: odds and pick
- Nice, next: Nice v Rennes analysis