Why this pick: Lyon vs Nice
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lyon vs Nice: model vs market
| Source | Lyon | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 61% | 21% | 18% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Lyon below our published probability: +2.4 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lyon vs Nice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 32 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lyon | 1.65 | 1.86 | +0.22 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.84 | -0.16 |
| Nice | 5.00 | 4.05 | -0.95 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lyon and Nice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.21
- Attack rating (Lyon / Nice)
- 1.25 / 0.91
- Defence rating (Lyon / Nice)
- 0.89 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lyon vs Nice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lyon vs Nice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lyon vs Nice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lyon | 54% | 1.86 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.17 | |
| Nice | 22% | 4.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| No | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lyon or draw) | 78% | 1.29 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Nice) | 46% | 2.17 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 38% | 2.65 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lyon and Nice recent form
Lyon
4W 1D 1L
Nice
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lyon at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lyon at home only, Nice away only.
Injuries & availability
Lyon absences
-
L. Openda
leg injury
-
M. Ouedraogo
knee injury
-
N. Tagliafico
knee injury
Nice absences
-
A. Abdi
muscle injury
-
A. Mendy
knee injury
-
L. Abergel
knee injury
-
M. Bombito
leg injury
-
M. Sanson
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lyon lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 40 R. Descamps
- 16 Abner
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 22 Clinton Mata
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 26 K. Boudache
- 99 N. Nartey
- 24 J. Duranville
- 10 P. Šulc
Bench: D. Greif, E. Nuamah, C. Tolisso, Keito Nakamura, K. Merah, F. Bacher, R. Kluivert, T. Morton, R. Himbert
Nice lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 Mohamed Abdelmonem
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 28 A. Witsel
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 92 J. Clauss
- 9 M. Amoura
- 7 G. Hein
- 11 E. Wahi
Bench: M. Sanson, S. Diop, I. Jansson, N. Ngoumou, A. Seidu, D. Coulibaly, D. Morana, T. Boulhendi, H. Koutoune
Lyon vs Nice head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lyon 5 · draws 2 · Nice 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Lyon | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Nice | 3-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-09 | Nice | 0-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Lyon | 4-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-16 | Lyon | 1-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Nice | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-06-03 | Nice | 3-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-11-11 | Lyon | 1-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-12 | Lyon | 2-0 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-10-24 | Nice | 3-2 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Lyon, previous: Lens vs Lyon prediction
- Lyon, next: Paris Saint Germain v Lyon analysis
- Nice, previous: Nice – Strasbourg, 2026-10-11
- Nice, next: Brest vs Nice: odds and pick