Why this pick: Angers vs Marseille
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Marseille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Angers vs Marseille: model vs market
| Source | Angers | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 21% | 35% |
| Market | 28% | 25% | 47% |
| Published | 32% | 24% | 44% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Angers vs Marseille odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 3.00 | 3.43 | +0.43 |
| Draw | 3.69 | 3.77 | +0.08 |
| Marseille | 2.20 | 2.01 | -0.19 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Angers and Marseille expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 4.00
- Attack rating (Angers / Marseille)
- 0.98 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Angers / Marseille)
- 1.34 / 1.39
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Angers vs Marseille score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Marseille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Angers vs Marseille goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Angers vs Marseille
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 32% | 3.17 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.13 | |
| Marseille | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74% | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 | 26% | 3.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.36 |
| No | 27% | 3.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Angers or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Marseille) | 68% | 1.46 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win by 2+ | 19% | 5.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Angers and Marseille recent form
Angers
2W 1D 3L
Marseille
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Angers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Marseille away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Angers at home only, Marseille away only.
Injuries & availability
Angers absences
-
H. Belkebla
injury
- J. Kalulu groin injury
- J. Lefort suspended
- O. Camara thigh injury
Marseille absences
- D. Cornelius hip injury
- P. Hojbjerg muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Angers lineup · 4-3-3
- 1 Anthony Lopes
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 6 L. Mouton
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 2 C. Arcus
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 24 E. Biumla
- 14 Y. Belkhdim
- 10 A. Sbaï
- 19 A. El Ouazzani
- 18 J. Allevinah
Bench: U. Simbakoli, P. Peter, Djibirin Harouna, J. Kalulu, Marius Louër, A. Bermont, Bane Diatta, Jules Bouffandeau, Oumar Pona
Marseille lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. de Lange
- 33 Emerson
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 4 C. Egan-Riley
- 22 T. Weah
- 6 T. Nnadi
- 14 Igor Paixão
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 77 A. Harit
- 9 A. Gouiri
Bench: A. Gomes, N. Maupay, B. Meité, N. Aguerd, U. Garcia, T. Mmadi, K. Abdallah, K. Bezahaf, T. Vermot
Angers vs Marseille head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Angers 1 · draws 3 · Marseille 6.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Angers | 2-5 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-29 | Marseille | 2-2 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-02-09 | Angers | 0-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-10-04 | Marseille | 1-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-05-14 | Marseille | 3-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-09-30 | Angers | 0-3 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-04 | Marseille | 5-2 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-09-22 | Angers | 0-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-05-16 | Marseille | 3-2 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2020-12-23 | Angers | 2-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Lorient vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Angers, previous: Brest v Angers analysis
- Angers, next: Angers v Lorient analysis
- Marseille, previous: Estac Troyes vs Marseille: odds and pick
- Marseille, next: Marseille vs Le Havre: odds and pick