Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

Le Havre vs Auxerre

· Stade Océane, Le Havre· Referee Eric Wattellier

Full time1 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Le Havre to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Le HavreDrawAuxerre

Why this pick: Le Havre vs Auxerre

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Le HavreAuxerre
1.29 xG per 90 1.30
1.06 npxG per 90 1.22
11.5 PPDA 14.4
4.8 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.04 xPTS per 90 0.99

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Le Havre vs Auxerre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLe HavreDrawAuxerre
Model45%24%31%
Market41%28%31%
Published42%27%31%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.38.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Le Havre vs Auxerre odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Le Havre, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.43Now 2.30 -0.13
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Le Havre2.432.30-0.13
Draw3.403.48+0.08
Auxerre2.853.08+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Le Havre and Auxerre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.78Le Havre
1.38Auxerre
Total expected goals
3.16
Attack rating (Le Havre / Auxerre)
0.94 / 0.92
Defence rating (Le Havre / Auxerre)
1.19 / 1.20

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Le Havre vs Auxerre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 6.1% 4.4% 2.0% 1.0% 1 7.6% 11.1% 7.5% 3.5% 1.6% 2 6.6% 9.1% 6.3% 2.9% 1.4% 3 3.7% 5.1% 3.6% 1.6% 0.8% 4+ 2.3% 3.2% 2.2% 1.0% 0.5%

Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Le Havre vs Auxerre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 81%
Over 2.5 59%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
61%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Le Havre vs Auxerre

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Le Havre42%2.36
Draw27%3.75
Auxerre31%3.22
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.559%1.68
Under 2.541%2.46
Both teams to scoreYes61%1.63
No39%2.59
Double chance1X (Le Havre or draw)69%1.45
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Auxerre)58%1.73
Handicap -1Le Havre win by 2+23%4.26
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Le Havre and Auxerre recent form

Le Havre 0W 2D 4L
Auxerre 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Le Havre at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-2
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.0 goals per game on the road against 0.3 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Auxerre away

Record (W-D-L)
0-0-3
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
4.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.

League matches this season before kick-off: Le Havre at home only, Auxerre away only.

Injuries & availability

Le Havre absences

  • A. Seko suspended
  • A. Toure knee injury
  • E. Jelert thigh injury
  • F. Mambimbi achilles tendon injury
  • L. Mpasi-Nzau achilles tendon injury
  • R. Fofana inactive
  • S. Zagadou knee injury
  • T. Pembele muscle injury

Auxerre absences

  • A. Diousse knee injury
  • B. Okoh knee injury
  • C. Akpa injury
  • M. Senaya hamstring injury
  • R. Labeau Lascary injury
  • R. Mandengue muscle injury
  • S. Fofana groin injury
  • T. Siwe muscle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Le Havre lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 93 G. Gallon
  2. 5 A. Touba
  3. 6 J. Mwanga
  4. 20 D. Ouziad
  5. 7 A. Richardson
  6. 26 S. Ebonog
  7. 14 R. Ndiaye
  8. 25 M. Samatta
  9. 9 J. Maja
  10. 30 S. Nakamura

Bench: A. Bodart, K. Mizuta, V. Sasso, G. Zohouri, E. Koffi Vinette, R. Fofana, I. Bouneb, D. Mosengo

Auxerre lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 1 P. Nardi
  2. 92 C. Akpa
  3. 4 A. Tuanzebe
  4. 15 C. Makosso
  5. 22 F. Oppegård
  6. 5 K. Danois
  7. 8 N. Ahamada
  8. 27 L. Sy
  9. 10 D. Namaso
  10. 21 R. Faivre
  11. 9 C. Archer

Bench: P. Ekwah, S. Diomandé, M. Diop, L. Dioubate, E. Legros, Mamoudou Cissokho, A. Piedfort, Aristide Zossou

Le Havre vs Auxerre head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Le Havre 5 · draws 3 · Auxerre 2.

Le HavreDrawsAuxerre
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-05Le Havre1-1AuxerreLigue 1
2025-10-26Auxerre0-1Le HavreLigue 1
2025-05-04Auxerre1-2Le HavreLigue 1
2024-09-01Le Havre3-1AuxerreLigue 1
2022-05-07Le Havre1-2AuxerreLigue 2
2021-12-21Auxerre2-3Le HavreLigue 2
2021-04-05Auxerre1-1Le HavreLigue 2
2020-12-01Le Havre1-1AuxerreLigue 2
2020-03-06Le Havre1-0AuxerreLigue 2
2019-10-05Auxerre2-0Le HavreLigue 2

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match