Why this pick: Lorient vs Monaco
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lorient 10, Monaco 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lorient vs Monaco: model vs market
| Source | Lorient | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36% | 27% | 38% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 46% |
| Published | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lorient vs Monaco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 3.54 | 3.63 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.48 | 3.49 | +0.01 |
| Monaco | 2.10 | 2.08 | -0.02 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lorient and Monaco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.71
- Attack rating (Lorient / Monaco)
- 0.89 / 1.11
- Defence rating (Lorient / Monaco)
- 0.97 / 0.97
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lorient vs Monaco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lorient goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lorient vs Monaco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 54%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lorient vs Monaco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lorient | 29% | 3.49 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.67 | |
| Monaco | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| No | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lorient or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Monaco) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 17% | 5.73 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lorient and Monaco recent form
Lorient
2W 2D 2L
Monaco
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Lorient at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.33
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Monaco away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-0
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 1.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Lorient at home only, Monaco away only.
Injuries & availability
Lorient absences
-
N. Mbamba
muscle injury
Monaco absences
-
E. Dier
muscle injury
-
P. Brunner
suspended
-
S. Idumbo
injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Lorient lineup · 3-4-2-1
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 95 S. Touré
- 3 M. Talbi
- 32 N. Adjei
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 62 A. Avom
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 20 D. Sylla
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 17 J. Makengo
- 18 I. Baldé
Bench: A. Georgen, T. Le Bris, A. Tosin, S. Faye, B. Kamara, S. Kuzmić, M. Kone, N. Obaretin, P. Katseris
Monaco lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 L. Hrádecký
- 20 Flávio Nazinho
- 22 M. Salisu
- 72 Sadibou Sané
- 2 Vanderson
- 6 D. Zakaria
- 8 L. Camara
- 31 Ansu Fati
- 10 A. Golovin
- 18 T. Minamino
- 11 M. Abline
Bench: J. Teze, M. Detourbet, F. Balogun, C. Mawissa Elebi, M. Biereth, P. Köhn, Pape Cabral, M. Coulibaly, E. Diop
Lorient vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Lorient 3 · draws 5 · Monaco 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-16 | Monaco | 1-3 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Lorient | 3-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Monaco | 2-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-17 | Lorient | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Monaco | 3-1 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-11 | Lorient | 2-2 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-02-13 | Monaco | 0-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-08-13 | Lorient | 1-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-02-14 | Monaco | 2-2 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2021-01-06 | Lorient | 2-5 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
- Le Mans vs Toulouse 2026-10-16
- Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-10-17
- Lille vs Brest — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Estac Troyes vs Lens 2026-10-17
- Angers v Marseille — match page 2026-10-18
- Le Havre v Auxerre — match page 2026-10-18
- Paris FC vs Rennes — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Lyon vs Nice 2026-10-18
Before and after this match
- Lorient, previous: Lorient – Paris FC, 2026-10-10
- Lorient, next: Angers v Lorient analysis
- Monaco, previous: Monaco vs Toulouse: odds and pick
- Monaco, next: Monaco vs Lille prediction