Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 7

Paris FC vs Rennes

· Stade Jean Bouin, Isilemulino· Referee Bastein Dechepy

Full time4 – 3

TipsterGrid prediction was Paris FC to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Paris FCDrawRennes

Why this pick: Paris FC vs Rennes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Paris FC 10, Rennes 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Paris FCRennes
1.82 xG per 90 2.15
1.59 npxG per 90 2.05
13.0 PPDA 10.2
6.7 Deep completions per 90 9.8
2.02 xPTS per 90 1.46

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Paris FC vs Rennes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceParis FCDrawRennes
Model59%21%19%
Market45%27%29%
Published48%25%26%
Edge+4%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.13.
  • The market prices Paris FC below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Paris FC vs Rennes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-03.

Opened 2.30Now 2.13 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Paris FC2.302.13-0.17
Draw3.453.57+0.12
Rennes3.153.33+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Paris FC and Rennes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.20Paris FC
1.13Rennes
Total expected goals
3.32
Attack rating (Paris FC / Rennes)
1.18 / 1.23
Defence rating (Paris FC / Rennes)
0.73 / 1.18

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Paris FC vs Rennes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.3% 4.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 1 8.2% 9.7% 5.3% 2.0% 0.7% 2 8.8% 9.9% 5.6% 2.1% 0.7% 3 6.1% 6.9% 3.9% 1.4% 0.5% 4+ 5.1% 5.8% 3.3% 1.2% 0.4%

Rows: Paris FC goals. Columns: Rennes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Paris FC vs Rennes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 62%
Over 3.5 40%
Both teams to score
59%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Paris FC vs Rennes

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Paris FC48%2.07
Draw25%3.95
Rennes26%3.79
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562%1.60
Under 2.538%2.66
Both teams to scoreYes59%1.68
No41%2.46
Double chance1X (Paris FC or draw)74%1.36
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Rennes)52%1.94
Handicap -1Paris FC win by 2+36%2.74
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Paris FC and Rennes recent form

Paris FC 3W 2D 1L
Rennes 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-0
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.67
Goals against / match
0.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Rennes away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
2.50
Clean sheets
0 of 2
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Paris FC at home only, Rennes away only.

Injuries & availability

Paris FC absences

  • J. Ikone thigh injury
  • N. Sangui muscle injury
  • S. Chergui knee injury
  • V. Marchetti inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Paris FC lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 K. Trapp
  2. 14 H. Traoré
  3. 42 D. Coppola
  4. 31 S. Chergui
  5. 17 A. Camara
  6. 33 P. Lees-Melou
  7. 20 M. Lopez
  8. 15 L. Koleosho
  9. 7 P. Pagis
  10. 10 I. Kebbal
  11. 9 L. Sinayoko

Bench: E. Mbemba, M. Mbow, Otávio, E. Zabi, J. Krasso, O. Nkambadio, O. Sissoko, R. Matondo, M. Simon

Rennes lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 30 B. Samba
  2. 95 P. Frankowski
  3. 24 A. Rouault
  4. 4 C. Cresswell
  5. 14 B. Reynolds
  6. 28 A. Thomasson
  7. 6 D. Cissé
  8. 17 S. Szymański
  9. 90 I. Soumaré
  10. 9 E. Lepaul
  11. 10 L. Blas

Bench: Mousa Tamari, Eliezer Mayenda, M. Nagida, V. Rongier, B. Dia, M. Camara, A. Ait Boudlal, Kilian Belazzoug, A. Nordin

Paris FC vs Rennes head-to-head

Last 2 meetings: Paris FC 0 · draws 0 · Rennes 2.

Paris FCDrawsRennes
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Rennes2-1Paris FCLigue 1
2025-11-07Paris FC0-1RennesLigue 1

Other Matchday 7 fixtures

Before and after this match