Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Everton vs Crystal Palace

· Hill Dickinson Stadium, Liverpool· Referee Paul Tierney, England

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Everton to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
EvertonDrawCrystal Palace

Why this pick: Everton vs Crystal Palace

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Everton 10, Crystal Palace 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

EvertonCrystal Palace
1.33 xG per 90 1.57
1.33 npxG per 90 1.35
15.0 PPDA 14.8
5.0 Deep completions per 90 6.4
1.11 xPTS per 90 1.29

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Everton vs Crystal Palace: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceEvertonDrawCrystal Palace
Model51%22%27%
Market43%28%29%
Published45%27%28%
Edge+2%-1%-1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Everton vs Crystal Palace odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Everton, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.17Now 2.23 +0.06
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Everton2.172.23+0.06
Draw3.403.40+0.00
Crystal Palace3.383.30-0.08

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Everton and Crystal Palace expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.68Everton
1.61Crystal Palace
Total expected goals
3.30
Attack rating (Everton / Crystal Palace)
1.00 / 1.13
Defence rating (Everton / Crystal Palace)
1.17 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Everton vs Crystal Palace score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 4.0% 4.4% 2.4% 1.4% 1 4.6% 11.2% 7.8% 4.2% 2.4% 2 5.3% 8.6% 6.9% 3.7% 2.2% 3 3.1% 5.0% 4.1% 2.2% 1.3% 4+ 2.1% 3.3% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8%

Rows: Everton goals. Columns: Crystal Palace goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Everton vs Crystal Palace goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 87%
Over 2.5 66%
Over 3.5 44%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Everton vs Crystal Palace

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Everton45%2.23
Draw27%3.75
Crystal Palace28%3.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.35
Under 2.526%3.86
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.68
Double chance1X (Everton or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)73%1.36
X2 (draw or Crystal Palace)55%1.81
Handicap -1Everton win by 2+22%4.53
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Everton and Crystal Palace recent form

Everton 0W 2D 4L
Crystal Palace 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Everton vs Crystal Palace head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Everton 4 · draws 2 · Crystal Palace 0.

EvertonDrawsCrystal Palace
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Crystal Palace2-2EvertonPremier League
2025-10-05Everton2-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2025-02-15Crystal Palace1-2EvertonPremier League
2024-09-28Everton2-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2024-02-19Everton1-1Crystal PalacePremier League
2023-11-11Crystal Palace2-3EvertonPremier League

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match