Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Why this pick: Manchester City vs Bournemouth

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester City 10, Bournemouth 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth: model vs market

• Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.29 vs 1.34.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Manchester City, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Manchester City and Bournemouth expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.63

Attack rating (Manchester City / Bournemouth)

1.35 / 1.22

Defence rating (Manchester City / Bournemouth)

0.91 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Manchester City goals. Columns: Bournemouth goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Manchester City vs Bournemouth goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

68%

No goals (0–0)

4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Manchester City and Bournemouth recent form

Manchester City LDWWWD 3W 2D 1L

Bournemouth DDWWDW 3W 3D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.