Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Why this pick: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nottingham Forest 10, Leeds 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds: model vs market

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Nottingham Forest, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Nottingham Forest and Leeds expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

Total expected goals

3.22

Attack rating (Nottingham Forest / Leeds)

1.00 / 1.14

Defence rating (Nottingham Forest / Leeds)

1.19 / 1.03

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

Rows: Nottingham Forest goals. Columns: Leeds goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Nottingham Forest vs Leeds goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Both teams to score

67%

No goals (0–0)

5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

Nottingham Forest and Leeds recent form

Nottingham Forest DLDLWW 2W 2D 2L

Leeds LWDWLD 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.