Why this pick: Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Manchester City 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
Manchester CityAston Villa
2.46
xG per 90
1.71
2.46
npxG per 90
1.71
11.3
PPDA
12.3
13.3
Deep completions per 90
6.7
2.12
xPTS per 90
1.48
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Manchester City and Aston Villa recent form
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manchester City at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-3-1
- Win rate
- 78%
- Goals for / match
- 2.44
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 18
Aston Villa away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-6
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.22
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 18
League matches this season before kick-off: Manchester City at home only, Aston Villa away only.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Manchester City 5 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 3.
56%
11%
33%
Manchester CityDrawsAston Villa
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2025-04-22 | Manchester City | 2-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2024-12-21 | Aston Villa | 2-1 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2024-04-03 | Manchester City | 4-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2023-12-06 | Aston Villa | 1-0 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2023-02-12 | Manchester City | 3-1 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2022-09-03 | Aston Villa | 1-1 | Manchester City | Premier League |
| 2022-05-22 | Manchester City | 3-2 | Aston Villa | Premier League |
| 2021-12-01 | Aston Villa | 1-2 | Manchester City | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Manchester City, previous: Bournemouth – Manchester City, 2026-05-19
- Manchester City, next: Manchester City vs Bournemouth: odds and pick
- Aston Villa, previous: Aston Villa – Liverpool, 2026-05-15
- Aston Villa, next: Brighton vs Aston Villa prediction