Updated

Premier League · Matchday 1

Brighton vs Aston Villa

· American Express Stadium, Falmer· Referee Peter Bankes, England

Full time4 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Brighton to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BrightonDrawAston Villa

Why this pick: Brighton vs Aston Villa

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brighton 10, Aston Villa 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BrightonAston Villa
1.72 xG per 90 1.83
1.72 npxG per 90 1.83
7.8 PPDA 13.9
9.6 Deep completions per 90 6.4
1.75 xPTS per 90 1.57

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Brighton vs Aston Villa: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBrightonDrawAston Villa
Model29%28%43%
Market44%27%29%
Published40%27%32%
Edge-4%0%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Brighton vs Aston Villa odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.20Now 2.20 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Brighton2.202.20+0.00
Draw3.603.62+0.02
Aston Villa3.053.37+0.32

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Brighton and Aston Villa expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.19Brighton
1.57Aston Villa
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Brighton / Aston Villa)
1.01 / 1.49
Defence rating (Brighton / Aston Villa)
0.87 / 0.77

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Brighton vs Aston Villa score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 7.6% 7.3% 3.8% 2.1% 1 5.7% 13.5% 9.2% 4.8% 2.7% 2 4.7% 7.3% 5.7% 3.0% 1.7% 3 1.9% 3.0% 2.4% 1.2% 0.7% 4+ 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3%

Rows: Brighton goals. Columns: Aston Villa goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Brighton vs Aston Villa goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 31%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Brighton vs Aston Villa

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Brighton40%2.48
Draw27%3.67
Aston Villa32%3.09
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.87
Under 2.547%2.15
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Brighton or draw)68%1.48
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Aston Villa)60%1.68
Handicap -1Brighton win by 2+13%7.81
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Brighton and Aston Villa recent form

Brighton 2W 1D 3L
Aston Villa 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Brighton vs Aston Villa head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Brighton 1 · draws 1 · Aston Villa 4.

BrightonDrawsAston Villa
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-11Aston Villa1-0BrightonPremier League
2025-12-03Brighton3-4Aston VillaPremier League
2025-04-02Brighton0-3Aston VillaPremier League
2024-12-30Aston Villa2-2BrightonPremier League
2024-05-05Brighton1-0Aston VillaPremier League
2023-09-30Aston Villa6-1BrightonPremier League

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match