Today’s matches in Italy
5 fixtures today — every row opens the full prediction
| Match | League | Pick | Edge | Ours | Market | Conf. | Best odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan vs BolognaSerie AA | Serie A | AC MilanOur prob 54%Best odds 1.78 | -2% | 54% | 56% | A | 1.78 |
| Venezia vs InterSerie AA | Serie A | InterOur prob 69%Best odds 1.38 | -2% | 69% | 71% | A | 1.38 |
| Parma Calcio 1913 vs UdineseSerie AA | Serie A | UdineseOur prob 35%Best odds 2.77 | 0% | 35% | 35% | A | 2.77 |
| Genoa vs JuventusSerie AA | Serie A | JuventusOur prob 55%Best odds 1.79 | 0% | 55% | 55% | A | 1.79 |
| Monza vs NapoliSerie AA | Serie A | NapoliOur prob 52%Best odds 1.82 | -3% | 52% | 55% | A | 1.82 |
Our prob = the probability we publish for that pick (the Ours column) — our model blended with the de-vigged market price where one is recorded; Market = that de-vigged market probability. Edge = Ours minus Market; grade A/B = the pick is backed by both/one team's xG record. Best odds = the top bookmaker price on our pick, taking each book at its own last update.
Italy — country trends
How matches actually ended in the 2026/27 across Italy’s covered competitions: 83 played matches. A record of results, not a forecast.
Change is in percentage points against the 2025/26 season (380 played matches).
Competitions in Italy
1 competition covered — squad size, matches played this season and fixtures inside our publication window.
-
Italy · league- Teams
- 20
- Played
- 83 of 380
- Upcoming
- 60
Played / scheduled count this season’s matches; Upcoming counts the fixtures currently inside our publication window.
Top teams in Italy by model rating
The attack and defence rates our model feeds into every prediction, as of the last update. Net = attack − defence, in goals per match.
- Net rating
- +0.96
- Attack
- 2.26
- Defence
- 1.29
- Net rating
- +0.86
- Attack
- 1.76
- Defence
- 0.90
- Net rating
- +0.82
- Attack
- 2.24
- Defence
- 1.42
- Net rating
- +0.81
- Attack
- 2.33
- Defence
- 1.52
- Net rating
- +0.47
- Attack
- 1.96
- Defence
- 1.49
- Net rating
- +0.35
- Attack
- 1.65
- Defence
- 1.30
Rates are decay-weighted over each team’s last 15 completed matches — xG where the window is xG-backed, goals otherwise — and shrunk towards the league average; a higher attack and a lower defence rate are better. Form: last five results, newest first.
Recent results in Italy
What happened next to what we predicted