Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford

· Molineux Stadium, Wolverhampton· Referee Bobby Madley

Full time1 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Wolverhampton Wanderers to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

11% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Wolverhampton WanderersDrawWatford

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceWolverhampton WanderersDrawWatford
Model67%20%13%
Market69%19%12%
Published69%19%12%
Edge-1%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.21 vs 0.87.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Wolverhampton Wanderers, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.36Now 1.36 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Wolverhampton Wanderers1.361.36+0.00
Draw4.855.00+0.15
Watford7.538.00+0.47

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.21Wolverhampton Wanderers
0.87Watford
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Watford)
1.06 / 0.75
Defence rating (Wolverhampton Wanderers / Watford)
0.95 / 1.46

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 3.1% 1.7% 0.5% 0.1% 1 9.2% 9.7% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 2 11.2% 9.8% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 3 8.2% 7.2% 3.1% 0.9% 0.2% 4+ 7.7% 6.7% 2.9% 0.9% 0.2%

Rows: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Columns: Watford goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Wolverhampton Wanderers69%1.45
Draw19%5.19
Watford12%8.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.68
Under 2.540%2.48
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.90
No47%2.12
Double chance1X (Wolverhampton Wanderers or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Watford)31%3.20
Handicap -1Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+44%2.26
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Wolverhampton Wanderers and Watford recent form

Wolverhampton Wanderers 2W 1D 3L
Watford 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Wolverhampton Wanderers at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-2-1
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.80
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.

Watford away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-4
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 5
  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Wolverhampton Wanderers at home only, Watford away only.

Injuries & availability

Wolverhampton Wanderers absences

  • A. Armstrong back injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • B. Traore injury
  • R. Gomes foot injury
  • R. Jimenez knee injury

Watford absences

  • E. Bove knee injury
  • J. Ngakia thigh injury
  • K. Baah knock
  • M. Antonio inactive
  • T. Akomeah lacking match fitness

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Wolverhampton Wanderers lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 José Sá
  2. 3 Hugo Bueno
  3. 37 L. Krejčí
  4. 15 Y. Mosquera
  5. 2 K. Trippier
  6. 5 M. Munetsi
  7. 7 André
  8. 8 J. James
  9. 19 R. Saïd
  10. 27 J. Bellegarde
  11. 10 A. Armstrong

Bench: João Virgínia, S. Neave, T. Doyle, T. Chirewa, Toti Gomes, Fer López, M. Mane, J. Tchatchoua, L. Rawlings

Watford lineup · 5-3-2

  1. 1 F. Ravaglia
  2. 15 K. Diatta
  3. 4 K. Keben
  4. 6 M. Pollock
  5. 29 Branimir Mlačić
  6. 16 M. Bola
  7. 39 E. Kayembe
  8. 5 H. Kyprianou
  9. 17 Iker Bravo
  10. 9 L. Kjerrumgaard
  11. 10 M. Boadu

Bench: O. Maamma, R. Vata, M. Doumbia, Amin Nabizada, M. Payero, O. Traoré, D. Bachmann, J. Zemura, S. Mavididi

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Watford head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Wolverhampton Wanderers 5 · draws 2 · Watford 3.

Wolverhampton WanderersDrawsWatford
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2022-03-10Wolverhampton Wanderers4-0WatfordPremier League
2021-09-11Watford0-2Wolverhampton WanderersPremier League
2020-01-01Watford2-1Wolverhampton WanderersPremier League
2019-09-28Wolverhampton Wanderers2-0WatfordPremier League
2019-04-27Watford1-2Wolverhampton WanderersPremier League
2019-04-07Watford3-2Wolverhampton WanderersFA Cup
2018-10-20Wolverhampton Wanderers0-2WatfordPremier League
2015-03-07Wolverhampton Wanderers2-2WatfordChampionship
2014-12-26Watford0-1Wolverhampton WanderersChampionship
2013-03-01Wolverhampton Wanderers1-1WatfordChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match