Updated

England Championship · Matchday 12

Portsmouth vs Millwall

· Fratton Park, Portsmouth· Referee Tom Reeves

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Portsmouth to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
PortsmouthDrawMillwall

Portsmouth vs Millwall: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourcePortsmouthDrawMillwall
Model43%28%29%
Market38%29%34%
Published39%28%33%
Edge+1%0%-1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Portsmouth vs Millwall odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Portsmouth, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 2.56Now 2.49 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Portsmouth2.562.49-0.07
Draw3.303.30+0.00
Millwall2.622.80+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Portsmouth and Millwall expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Portsmouth
1.23Millwall
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Portsmouth / Millwall)
0.98 / 1.00
Defence rating (Portsmouth / Millwall)
1.00 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Portsmouth vs Millwall score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.5% 6.5% 4.7% 1.9% 0.8% 1 8.5% 13.1% 7.3% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.4% 9.1% 5.6% 2.3% 0.9% 3 3.8% 4.7% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 2.1% 2.5% 1.6% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Portsmouth goals. Columns: Millwall goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Portsmouth vs Millwall goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Portsmouth vs Millwall

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Portsmouth39%2.55
Draw28%3.54
Millwall33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.09
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.76
No43%2.31
Double chance1X (Portsmouth or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)72%1.39
X2 (draw or Millwall)61%1.64
Handicap -1Portsmouth win by 2+22%4.49
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Portsmouth and Millwall recent form

Portsmouth 2W 3D 1L
Millwall 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Portsmouth at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.60
Goals against / match
1.80
Clean sheets
1 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Millwall away

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-2
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.40
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
2 of 5
  • They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Portsmouth at home only, Millwall away only.

Injuries & availability

Portsmouth absences

  • B. Arthur back injury
  • C. Bishop knee injury
  • C. Ogilvie knee injury
  • C. Shaughnessy injury
  • F. Umeh hamstring injury
  • J. Murphy groin injury
  • J. Swift knee injury
  • K. Anderson overload
  • L. Brooke-Smith ankle injury
  • M. Kosznovszky knee injury

Millwall absences

  • C. De Norre muscle injury
  • F. Marschall injury
  • J. Coburn muscle injury
  • L. Jensen muscle injury
  • M. Ivanovic hamstring injury
  • M. Luongo knee injury
  • M. Servais inactive
  • T. Arconte ankle injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Portsmouth lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 N. Schmid
  2. 22 Z. Swanson
  3. 55 M. Dia
  4. 5 R. Poole
  5. 24 T. Devlin
  6. 37 I. Mohamed
  7. 7 M. Pack
  8. 25 R. Kavuma McQueen
  9. 10 A. Segecic
  10. 11 A. Kamara
  11. 29 M. Milovanović

Bench: F. Umeh, J. Meghoma, T. Shade, R. Shein, T. Waddingham, O. Bailey, D. Bielica, E. Kenny, E. Adams

Millwall lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 15 M. Crocombe
  2. 3 Zak Norton Sturge
  3. 5 J. Cooper
  4. 6 C. Taylor
  5. 4 T. Crama
  6. 49 D. Mazou-Sacko
  7. 14 Jenson Metcalfe
  8. 22 K. Lisbie
  9. 10 C. Neghli
  10. 25 L. Cundle
  11. 13 L. Dykes

Bench: J. Osei-Tutu, M. Ivanović, R. Esse, E. Baggott, D. Kelly, M. Sykes, R. Leonard, G. Evans, A. Doughty

Portsmouth vs Millwall head-to-head

Last 8 meetings: Portsmouth 2 · draws 0 · Millwall 6.

PortsmouthDrawsMillwall
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-21Millwall1-3PortsmouthEngland Championship
2025-11-22Portsmouth3-1MillwallEngland Championship
2025-04-05Millwall2-1PortsmouthChampionship
2025-01-28Portsmouth0-1MillwallChampionship
2024-08-13Portsmouth0-1MillwallLeague Cup
2021-08-10Millwall2-1PortsmouthLeague Cup
2012-04-10Portsmouth0-1MillwallChampionship
2011-12-26Millwall1-0PortsmouthChampionship

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Before and after this match