Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna preview
In the upcoming match between Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna, the probabilities indicate a 40% chance for Espanyol to win, while Deportivo La Coruna has a 32% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with an 8% probability. A key factor to consider is the expected goals, where Deportivo La Coruna has a higher expected goals figure of 1.65 compared to Espanyol's 1.32, suggesting they may create more scoring opportunities.
Both teams show mixed recent form, with Espanyol recording W-L-L-L-D-L and Deportivo La Coruna at W-L-D-L-D-L. Despite Espanyol's home advantage, the 63% probability of both teams scoring indicates that Deportivo La Coruna could pose a significant threat. This dynamic could challenge the predicted outcome, making the match more competitive than the numbers suggest.
Why this pick: Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Espanyol 10, Deportivo La Coruna 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna: model vs market
| Source | Espanyol | Draw | Deportivo La Coruna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 28% | 41% |
| Market | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Published | 40% | 28% | 32% |
| Edge | -3% | 0% | +3% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Espanyol, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | 2.17 | 2.29 | +0.12 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.30 | -0.05 |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 3.35 | 3.17 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.01
- Attack rating (Espanyol / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 0.94 / 1.22
- Defence rating (Espanyol / Deportivo La Coruna)
- 1.19 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Espanyol goals. Columns: Deportivo La Coruna goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 40% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.56 | |
| Deportivo La Coruna | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.59 |
| No | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Espanyol or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo La Coruna) | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Handicap -1 | Espanyol win by 2+ | 14% | 6.94 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Espanyol and Deportivo La Coruna recent form
Espanyol
1W 1D 4L
Deportivo La Coruna
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Espanyol at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo La Coruna away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-2
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Espanyol at home only, Deportivo La Coruna away only.
Espanyol vs Deportivo La Coruna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Espanyol 4 · draws 4 · Deportivo La Coruna 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-02-23 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2017-09-24 | Espanyol | 4-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2017-05-07 | Deportivo La Coruna | 1-2 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2017-01-06 | Espanyol | 1-1 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2016-02-20 | Espanyol | 1-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2015-09-27 | Deportivo La Coruna | 3-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2015-03-22 | Deportivo La Coruna | 0-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2014-10-26 | Espanyol | 0-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
| 2013-05-19 | Deportivo La Coruna | 2-0 | Espanyol | La Liga |
| 2012-12-20 | Espanyol | 2-0 | Deportivo La Coruna | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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Before and after this match
- Espanyol, previous: Villarreal v Espanyol analysis
- Deportivo La Coruna, previous: Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna: odds and pick