Malaga vs Racing Santander preview
In the upcoming match between Malaga and Racing Santander, the probability of Malaga winning stands at 41%, while Racing Santander has a 33% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, with a 9% likelihood. Both teams are showing moderate scoring potential, with expected goals of 1.76 for Malaga and 1.48 for Racing Santander.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Malaga's last five matches show 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, while Racing Santander has 2 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses. This discrepancy in form may suggest that Racing Santander could pose a greater challenge than the numbers indicate, potentially affecting the predicted scoreline and probabilities.
Why this pick: Malaga vs Racing Santander
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Malaga 10, Racing Santander 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Malaga vs Racing Santander: model vs market
| Source | Malaga | Draw | Racing Santander |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43% | 26% | 30% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 34% |
| Published | 41% | 26% | 33% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.39.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.48, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Malaga vs Racing Santander odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Malaga, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 2.30 | 2.41 | +0.11 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Racing Santander | 2.92 | 2.80 | -0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Malaga and Racing Santander expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Malaga / Racing Santander)
- 0.91 / 1.04
- Defence rating (Malaga / Racing Santander)
- 1.15 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Malaga vs Racing Santander score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Malaga goals. Columns: Racing Santander goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Malaga vs Racing Santander goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Malaga vs Racing Santander
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malaga | 41% | 2.46 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 | |
| Racing Santander | 33% | 3.04 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66% | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 | 34% | 2.95 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.46 |
| No | 32% | 3.16 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Malaga or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Racing Santander) | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Handicap -1 | Malaga win by 2+ | 30% | 3.33 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Malaga and Racing Santander recent form
Malaga
1W 2D 3L
Racing Santander
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Malaga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-2
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 0 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Racing Santander away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 3.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Malaga at home only, Racing Santander away only.
Malaga vs Racing Santander head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Malaga 4 · draws 3 · Racing Santander 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Malaga | 1-1 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 2025-10-05 | Racing Santander | 3-0 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2025-02-01 | Racing Santander | 2-1 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2024-11-23 | Malaga | 0-0 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 2023-03-05 | Malaga | 0-1 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 2022-10-01 | Racing Santander | 0-0 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2020-02-23 | Malaga | 2-0 | Racing Santander | Segunda División |
| 2019-08-17 | Racing Santander | 0-1 | Malaga | Segunda División |
| 2012-04-09 | Malaga | 3-0 | Racing Santander | La Liga |
| 2011-11-21 | Racing Santander | 1-3 | Malaga | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
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- Valencia vs Real Madrid 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page 2026-11-08
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Malaga, previous: Real Betis v Malaga analysis
- Racing Santander, previous: Racing Santander vs Real Madrid prediction