Sevilla vs Alaves preview
In the La Liga fixture between Sevilla and Alaves, Sevilla has a 45% probability of winning, while Alaves sits at 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1, which occurs at a 9% likelihood. This suggests a competitive match, but the recent form of both teams could influence the outcome. Sevilla has recorded 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 6 matches, while Alaves has struggled, with 1 draw and 5 losses in the same timeframe.
While Sevilla's expected goals stand at 1.45 compared to Alaves' 1.12, the head-to-head record shows Alaves has had the upper hand recently, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters. This discrepancy in form and historical performance could lead to an unexpected result, making it essential to consider all factors before forming a prediction.
Why this pick: Sevilla vs Alaves
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Sevilla 10, Alaves 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Sevilla vs Alaves: model vs market
| Source | Sevilla | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Market | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.15.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.09, recorded — the top price across the 11 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Sevilla vs Alaves odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Sevilla, 29 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sevilla | 2.00 | 1.95 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.40 | +0.05 |
| Alaves | 3.90 | 4.05 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Sevilla and Alaves expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.86
- Attack rating (Sevilla / Alaves)
- 0.99 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Sevilla / Alaves)
- 0.99 / 1.07
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Sevilla vs Alaves score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Sevilla goals. Columns: Alaves goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Sevilla vs Alaves goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 59%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Sevilla vs Alaves
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Alaves | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| No | 41% | 2.44 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Sevilla or draw) | 75% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Alaves) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Sevilla win by 2+ | 29% | 3.40 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Sevilla and Alaves recent form
Sevilla
2W 1D 3L
Alaves
0W 2D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Sevilla at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-2
- Win rate
- 60%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 5 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- 52% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alaves away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-3
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.80
- Goals against / match
- 2.20
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Sevilla at home only, Alaves away only.
Injuries & availability
Sevilla absences
-
I. Romero
knee injury
- M. Bueno suspended
- M. Sierra shoulder injury
-
Marcao
muscle injury
- Peque hamstring injury
Alaves absences
-
M. Rodriguez
ankle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Sevilla vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Sevilla 2 · draws 4 · Alaves 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2025-12-17 | Alaves | 1-0 | Sevilla | Copa del Rey |
| 2025-09-20 | Alaves | 1-2 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2025-04-20 | Sevilla | 1-1 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2024-09-20 | Alaves | 2-1 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2024-01-12 | Sevilla | 2-3 | Alaves | La Liga |
| 2023-08-21 | Alaves | 4-3 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2023-01-17 | Alaves | 0-1 | Sevilla | Copa del Rey |
| 2022-03-04 | Alaves | 0-0 | Sevilla | La Liga |
| 2021-11-20 | Sevilla | 2-2 | Alaves | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-11-07
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Valencia vs Real Madrid 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Villarreal v Getafe — match page 2026-11-08
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Sevilla, previous: Getafe v Sevilla analysis
- Alaves, previous: Barcelona – Alaves, 2026-10-31