Villarreal vs Getafe preview
Villarreal faces Getafe with a strong probability of 67% for a Villarreal win and an expected goals figure of 3.18 compared to Getafe's 1.10. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1, occurring at an 8% rate. Villarreal's recent form shows 3 wins in their last 5 matches, while Getafe has only managed 2 wins in the same span.
However, the outcome could be influenced by Getafe's recent performance, which includes 2 wins in their last 3 matches. With a 65% chance of both teams scoring, Getafe could exploit any defensive lapses from Villarreal. The head-to-head record also shows Villarreal with 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss in their last 6 encounters against Getafe.
Why this pick: Villarreal vs Getafe
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Getafe 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Villarreal vs Getafe: model vs market
| Source | Villarreal | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 14% |
| Published | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Edge | +4% | -2% | -2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 1.45.
- The market prices Villarreal below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.0% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Villarreal vs Getafe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Villarreal, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.57 | 1.44 | -0.13 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.57 | +0.57 |
| Getafe | 5.60 | 7.15 | +1.55 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Villarreal and Getafe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.76
- Attack rating (Villarreal / Getafe)
- 1.17 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Villarreal / Getafe)
- 1.29 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Villarreal vs Getafe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Getafe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Villarreal vs Getafe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 65%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Villarreal vs Getafe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.01 | |
| Getafe | 13% | 7.87 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82% | 1.22 |
| Under 2.5 | 18% | 5.54 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 65% | 1.53 |
| No | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Villarreal or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Getafe) | 33% | 3.06 | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win by 2+ | 38% | 2.61 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Villarreal and Getafe recent form
Villarreal
2W 1D 3L
Getafe
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Villarreal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Getafe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-0-5
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 2.40
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Villarreal at home only, Getafe away only.
Villarreal vs Getafe head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Villarreal 2 · draws 3 · Getafe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Getafe | 2-1 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2025-12-06 | Villarreal | 2-0 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2025-03-30 | Getafe | 1-2 | Villarreal | La Liga |
| 2024-10-20 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2024-02-16 | Villarreal | 1-1 | Getafe | La Liga |
| 2023-09-30 | Getafe | 0-0 | Villarreal | La Liga |
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
- Malaga vs Racing Santander — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Espanyol v Deportivo La Coruna — match page 2026-11-07
- Osasuna vs Athletic Club — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Valencia vs Real Madrid 2026-11-07
- Elche vs Real Betis 2026-11-08
- Real Sociedad v Rayo Vallecano — match page 2026-11-08
- Celta Vigo vs Levante — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona — team news & stats 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Villarreal, previous: Villarreal v Paris Saint Germain analysis
- Getafe, previous: Getafe vs Brighton prediction