Getafe vs Brighton preview
In the UEFA Europa Conference League fixture between Getafe and Brighton, the probabilities show Brighton at 56% to win compared to Getafe's 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Brighton has a stronger recent form with 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Getafe has only 1 win in the same period. Both teams are expected to score, with our model suggesting a 66% chance for both teams to score and for over 2.5 goals. Getafe's expected goals stand at 1.40, while Brighton's is higher at 2.02. The confidence grade for this match is A, indicating a high level of confidence in the analysis.
Why this pick: Getafe vs Brighton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Getafe 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Getafe vs Brighton: model vs market
| Source | Getafe | Draw | Brighton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 24% | 47% |
| Market | 16% | 24% | 60% |
| Published | 19% | 24% | 57% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.88 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Getafe vs Brighton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brighton, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-30.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Getafe | 5.20 | 5.78 | +0.58 |
| Draw | 3.78 | 3.91 | +0.13 |
| Brighton | 1.65 | 1.57 | -0.08 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Getafe and Brighton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.33
- Attack rating (Getafe / Brighton)
- 0.94 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Getafe / Brighton)
- 1.20 / 0.93
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Getafe vs Brighton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Getafe goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Getafe vs Brighton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Getafe vs Brighton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Getafe | 19% | 5.15 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Brighton | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Getafe or draw) | 43% | 2.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Brighton) | 81% | 1.24 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brighton win by 2+ | 27% | 3.76 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Getafe and Brighton recent form
Getafe
2W 2D 2L
Brighton
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Getafe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.50
- Goals against / match
- 3.00
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 2
Brighton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-2-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 2
League matches this season before kick-off: Getafe at home only, Brighton away only.
Getafe vs Brighton head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Getafe 1 · draws 0 · Brighton 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-07 | Brighton | 0-2 | Getafe | Friendlies Clubs |
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Before and after this match
- Getafe, previous: Getafe v Sevilla analysis
- Getafe, next: Villarreal vs Getafe: odds and pick
- Brighton, previous: Manchester City vs Brighton: odds and pick
- Brighton, next: Brighton vs Brentford: odds and pick