Villarreal 0-6 Paris Saint Germain: Prediction vs Result 03.11.26

Why this pick: Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Villarreal 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

VillarrealParis Saint Germain

2.17 xG per 90 2.72

2.06 npxG per 90 2.40

10.3 PPDA 9.8

10.0 Deep completions per 90 12.9

1.77 xPTS per 90 2.20

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Villarreal	Draw	Paris Saint Germain
Model	55%	19%	25%
Market	23%	22%	56%
Published	31%	21%	48%
Edge	+8%	-1%	-8%

Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-28.

Opened 1.60Now 1.73 +0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Villarreal	4.60	4.25	-0.34
Draw	4.50	4.38	-0.12
Paris Saint Germain	1.60	1.73	+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Villarreal and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.62Villarreal

1.79Paris Saint Germain

Total expected goals: 4.41
Attack rating (Villarreal / Paris Saint Germain): 1.42 / 1.55
Defence rating (Villarreal / Paris Saint Germain): 0.88 / 0.96

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.8% 1 2.6% 6.3% 5.1% 3.0% 2.0% 2 4.2% 7.5% 6.7% 4.0% 2.7% 3 3.7% 6.5% 5.8% 3.5% 2.3% 4+ 4.5% 8.0% 7.2% 4.3% 2.9%

Rows: Villarreal goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 98%

Over 1.5 94%

Over 2.5 82%

Over 3.5 64%

Both teams to score: 78%
No goals (0–0): 2%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Villarreal vs Paris Saint Germain

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Villarreal	31%	3.26
	Draw	21%	4.70
	Paris Saint Germain	48%	2.08
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	81%	1.23
	Under 2.5	19%	5.40
Both teams to score	Yes	78%	1.29
	No	22%	4.48
Double chance	1X (Villarreal or draw)	52%	1.92
	12 (either side)	79%	1.27
	X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain)	69%	1.44
Handicap -1	Paris Saint Germain win by 2+	13%	7.97
	Push (exactly one goal)	13%	—