Auxerre vs Angers Prediction 29.08.2026

Why this pick: Auxerre vs Angers

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Auxerre 10, Angers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AuxerreAngers

1.29 xG per 90 1.14

1.22 npxG per 90 0.91

13.1 PPDA 20.0

3.2 Deep completions per 90 4.3

1.01 xPTS per 90 0.86

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Auxerre vs Angers: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Auxerre	Draw	Angers
Model	47%	24%	29%
Market	49%	27%	24%
Published	49%	26%	25%
Edge	-1%	-1%	+1%

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.84 vs 1.34.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Auxerre vs Angers odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Auxerre, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.05Now 1.93 -0.12

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Auxerre	2.05	1.93	-0.12
Draw	3.56	3.50	-0.06
Angers	3.77	4.00	+0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Auxerre and Angers expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.84Auxerre

1.34Angers

Total expected goals: 3.17
Attack rating (Auxerre / Angers): 0.93 / 0.84
Defence rating (Auxerre / Angers): 1.28 / 1.25

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Auxerre vs Angers score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.9% 5.9% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1 7.7% 11.0% 7.1% 3.2% 1.4% 2 7.0% 9.3% 6.2% 2.8% 1.2% 3 4.1% 5.4% 3.6% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 2.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.0% 0.5%

Rows: Auxerre goals. Columns: Angers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Auxerre vs Angers goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%

Over 1.5 82%

Over 2.5 59%

Over 3.5 37%

Both teams to score: 61%
No goals (0–0): 5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Auxerre vs Angers

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Auxerre	49%	2.06
	Draw	26%	3.80
	Angers	25%	3.99
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	60%	1.67
	Under 2.5	40%	2.48
Both teams to score	Yes	61%	1.63
	No	39%	2.58
Double chance	1X (Auxerre or draw)	75%	1.33
	12 (either side)	74%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Angers)	51%	1.95
Handicap -1	Auxerre win by 2+	25%	3.94
	Push (exactly one goal)	22%	—