Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 1

Angers vs Lille

· Stade Raymond Kopa, Angers· Referee Jeremy Stinat

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Lille to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
AngersDrawLille

Why this pick: Angers vs Lille

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Lille 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

AngersLille
1.04 xG per 90 1.54
0.81 npxG per 90 1.32
20.4 PPDA 11.3
3.9 Deep completions per 90 8.2
0.83 xPTS per 90 1.82

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Angers vs Lille: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAngersDrawLille
Model18%26%55%
Market19%26%55%
Published19%26%55%
Edge0%0%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Angers vs Lille odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lille, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.70Now 1.73 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Angers5.005.00+0.00
Draw3.703.75+0.05
Lille1.701.73+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Angers and Lille expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.81Angers
1.53Lille
Total expected goals
2.34
Attack rating (Angers / Lille)
0.79 / 0.97
Defence rating (Angers / Lille)
1.28 / 0.64

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Angers vs Lille score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 15.1% 11.8% 6.0% 3.3% 1 7.4% 12.1% 9.0% 4.6% 2.5% 2 2.9% 4.5% 3.5% 1.8% 1.0% 3 0.7% 1.1% 0.9% 0.5% 0.2% 4+ 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%

Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Lille goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Angers vs Lille goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 67%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
42%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Angers vs Lille

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Angers19%5.28
Draw26%3.89
Lille55%1.81
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.48
Under 2.560%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes42%2.37
No58%1.73
Double chance1X (Angers or draw)45%2.24
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Lille)81%1.23
Handicap -1Lille win by 2+29%3.42
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Angers and Lille recent form

Angers 0W 3D 3L
Lille 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Angers vs Lille head-to-head

Last 4 meetings: Angers 0 · draws 0 · Lille 4.

AngersDrawsLille
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-22Angers0-1LilleLigue 1
2025-11-02Lille1-0AngersLigue 1
2025-04-27Angers0-2LilleLigue 1
2024-08-24Lille2-0AngersLigue 1

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match