Why this pick: Brest vs Toulouse
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Toulouse 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brest vs Toulouse: model vs market
| Source | Brest | Draw | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 36% |
| Published | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Edge | +1% | -1% | 0% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Brest vs Toulouse odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Brest, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 2.84 | 2.66 | -0.18 |
| Draw | 3.35 | 3.40 | +0.05 |
| Toulouse | 2.64 | 2.65 | +0.01 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brest and Toulouse expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Brest / Toulouse)
- 1.03 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Brest / Toulouse)
- 1.17 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brest vs Toulouse score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Toulouse goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brest vs Toulouse goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brest vs Toulouse
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Toulouse | 36% | 2.80 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.59 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brest or draw) | 64% | 1.55 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Toulouse) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Brest win by 2+ | 21% | 4.86 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brest and Toulouse recent form
Brest
0W 3D 3L
Toulouse
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Injuries & availability
Brest absences
-
B. Chardonnet
calf injury
-
H. Magnetti
muscle injury
Toulouse absences
-
A. Donnum
inactive
-
A. Francis
inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Brest vs Toulouse head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brest 3 · draws 1 · Toulouse 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | Brest | 0-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Toulouse | 2-0 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Toulouse | 2-4 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Brest | 2-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-05-19 | Toulouse | 0-3 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Brest | 1-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
- Lille v Paris Saint Germain — match page 2026-08-28
- Strasbourg vs Lens — team news & stats 2026-08-29
- Lyon vs Le Havre 2026-08-29
- Lorient v Estac Troyes — match page 2026-08-29
- Auxerre vs Angers 2026-08-29
- Paris FC v Nice — match page 2026-08-30
- Rennes vs Le Mans — team news & stats 2026-08-30
- Monaco vs Marseille 2026-08-30
Before and after this match
- Brest, previous: Le Mans vs Brest prediction
- Brest, next: Le Havre v Brest analysis
- Toulouse, previous: Toulouse v Lyon analysis
- Toulouse, next: Toulouse – Lille, 2026-09-03