Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 2

Lyon vs Le Havre

· Groupama Stadium, Lyon· Referee Francois Letexier

Full time1 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Lyon to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LyonDrawLe Havre

Why this pick: Lyon vs Le Havre

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lyon 10, Le Havre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LyonLe Havre
1.41 xG per 90 1.29
1.33 npxG per 90 1.14
18.3 PPDA 10.7
9.1 Deep completions per 90 4.5
1.26 xPTS per 90 1.10

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lyon vs Le Havre: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLyonDrawLe Havre
Model55%23%21%
Market65%21%14%
Published63%21%16%
Edge-2%+1%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.07.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lyon vs Le Havre odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.56Now 1.44 -0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lyon1.561.44-0.12
Draw4.584.50-0.08
Le Havre5.706.65+0.96

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lyon and Le Havre expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.94Lyon
1.07Le Havre
Total expected goals
3.01
Attack rating (Lyon / Le Havre)
1.05 / 0.88
Defence rating (Lyon / Le Havre)
0.98 / 1.17

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lyon vs Le Havre score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.7% 5.5% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1 9.8% 11.0% 5.7% 2.0% 0.7% 2 9.3% 9.9% 5.3% 1.9% 0.6% 3 5.7% 6.1% 3.2% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 4.0% 4.2% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Lyon goals. Columns: Le Havre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lyon vs Le Havre goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lyon vs Le Havre

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lyon63%1.60
Draw21%4.67
Le Havre16%6.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.26
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.80
No44%2.25
Double chance1X (Lyon or draw)84%1.19
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Le Havre)37%2.68
Handicap -1Lyon win by 2+32%3.15
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lyon and Le Havre recent form

Lyon 2W 1D 3L
Le Havre 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Lyon absences

  • Abner Vinicius injury
  • K. Merah ankle injury

Le Havre absences

  • A. Toure knee injury
  • F. Mambimbi injury
  • S. Zagadou injury
  • Y. Zouaoui thigh injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Lyon vs Le Havre head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Lyon 3 · draws 2 · Le Havre 1.

LyonDrawsLe Havre
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-15Le Havre0-0LyonLigue 1
2025-12-14Lyon1-0Le HavreLigue 1
2025-03-16Lyon4-2Le HavreLigue 1
2024-10-20Le Havre0-4LyonLigue 1
2024-01-14Le Havre3-1LyonLigue 1
2023-09-17Lyon0-0Le HavreLigue 1

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match