Lorient vs Estac Troyes Prediction 29.08.2026

Why this pick: Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lorient 10, Estac Troyes 1). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LorientEstac Troyes

1.57 xG per 90 0.34

1.42 npxG per 90 0.34

18.9 PPDA 20.3

4.3 Deep completions per 90 6.0

1.37 xPTS per 90 0.32

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lorient vs Estac Troyes: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
Source	Lorient	Draw	Estac Troyes
Model	26%	26%	48%
Market	51%	27%	22%
Published	45%	27%	28%
Edge	-6%	0%	+6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lorient vs Estac Troyes odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lorient, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.29Now 1.87 -0.42

Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
Selection	First	Latest	Move
Lorient	2.29	1.87	-0.42
Draw	3.55	3.55	-0.00
Estac Troyes	3.20	4.35	+1.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lorient and Estac Troyes expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17Lorient

1.58Estac Troyes

Total expected goals: 2.75
Attack rating (Lorient / Estac Troyes): 1.05 / 1.22
Defence rating (Lorient / Estac Troyes): 1.05 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lorient vs Estac Troyes score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.1% 10.4% 8.5% 4.5% 2.5% 1 7.2% 12.2% 9.4% 5.0% 2.8% 2 4.2% 6.6% 5.2% 2.7% 1.5% 3 1.5% 2.4% 1.9% 1.0% 0.6% 4+ 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Lorient goals. Columns: Estac Troyes goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lorient vs Estac Troyes goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%

Over 1.5 75%

Over 2.5 50%

Over 3.5 28%

Both teams to score: 54%
No goals (0–0): 7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lorient vs Estac Troyes

Published probability and fair odds per market
Market	Selection	Probability	Fair odds
1X2	Lorient	45%	2.23
	Draw	27%	3.76
	Estac Troyes	28%	3.51
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	51%	1.98
	Under 2.5	49%	2.02
Both teams to score	Yes	54%	1.86
	No	46%	2.16
Double chance	1X (Lorient or draw)	72%	1.40
	12 (either side)	73%	1.36
	X2 (draw or Estac Troyes)	55%	1.82
Handicap -1	Lorient win by 2+	10%	9.67
	Push (exactly one goal)	16%	—