Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 2

Strasbourg vs Lens

· Stade de la Meinau, Strasbourg· Referee Bastein Dechepy

Full time2 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Lens to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 2

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
StrasbourgDrawLens

Why this pick: Strasbourg vs Lens

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Strasbourg 10, Lens 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

StrasbourgLens
1.59 xG per 90 2.54
1.51 npxG per 90 2.39
12.0 PPDA 10.5
6.1 Deep completions per 90 10.3
1.33 xPTS per 90 1.91

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Strasbourg vs Lens: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceStrasbourgDrawLens
Model17%19%64%
Market27%26%46%
Published25%24%51%
Edge-3%-2%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.28.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lens below our published probability: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Strasbourg vs Lens odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Lens, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 2.38Now 2.05 -0.33
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Strasbourg2.903.45+0.56
Draw3.763.60-0.16
Lens2.382.05-0.33

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Strasbourg and Lens expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.28Strasbourg
2.45Lens
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Strasbourg / Lens)
0.88 / 1.72
Defence rating (Strasbourg / Lens)
1.14 / 0.92

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Strasbourg vs Lens score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 2.7% 6.1% 7.7% 6.2% 6.8% 1 2.9% 7.8% 9.3% 7.6% 8.3% 2 1.9% 4.7% 5.7% 4.6% 5.1% 3 0.8% 1.9% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 4+ 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8%

Rows: Strasbourg goals. Columns: Lens goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Strasbourg vs Lens goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 71%
Over 3.5 50%
Both teams to score
65%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Strasbourg vs Lens

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Strasbourg25%4.01
Draw24%4.10
Lens51%1.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.571%1.41
Under 2.529%3.45
Both teams to scoreYes65%1.55
No35%2.83
Double chance1X (Strasbourg or draw)49%2.03
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Lens)75%1.33
Handicap -1Lens win by 2+43%2.34
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Strasbourg and Lens recent form

Strasbourg 2W 1D 3L
Lens 4W 1D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Strasbourg absences

  • B. Chilwell hamstring injury
  • I. Doukoure injury
  • J. Panichelli knee injury
  • M. Godo muscle injury
  • M. Oyedele injury
  • S. El Mourabet suspended

Lens absences

  • I. Ganiou injury
  • J. Chavez thigh injury
  • J. Gradit thigh injury
  • K. Antonio suspended
  • N. Celik injury
  • O. Edouard personal reasons
  • S. Abdulhamid contusion
  • S. Baidoo knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Strasbourg vs Lens head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Strasbourg 3 · draws 3 · Lens 4.

StrasbourgDrawsLens
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-27Strasbourg1-1LensLigue 1
2025-11-22Lens1-0StrasbourgLigue 1
2025-02-16Lens0-2StrasbourgLigue 1
2024-10-06Strasbourg2-2LensLigue 1
2024-02-10Lens3-1StrasbourgLigue 1
2023-09-29Strasbourg0-1LensLigue 1
2023-04-07Lens2-1StrasbourgLigue 1
2023-01-11Strasbourg2-2LensLigue 1
2022-04-03Strasbourg1-0LensLigue 1
2021-09-22Lens0-1StrasbourgLigue 1

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match