Why this pick: Lens vs Auxerre
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lens 10, Auxerre 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Lens vs Auxerre: model vs market
| Source | Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 18% | 14% |
| Market | 61% | 22% | 17% |
| Published | 63% | 21% | 16% |
| Edge | +2% | -1% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.99.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Lens vs Auxerre odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lens, 5 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lens | 1.59 | 1.56 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 4.32 | 4.28 | -0.04 |
| Auxerre | 5.25 | 5.65 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Lens and Auxerre expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.49
- Attack rating (Lens / Auxerre)
- 1.53 / 0.89
- Defence rating (Lens / Auxerre)
- 0.90 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Lens vs Auxerre score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Lens goals. Columns: Auxerre goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Lens vs Auxerre goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Lens vs Auxerre
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.72 | |
| Auxerre | 16% | 6.22 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| No | 43% | 2.34 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Lens or draw) | 84% | 1.19 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Auxerre) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win by 2+ | 46% | 2.19 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Lens and Auxerre recent form
Lens
3W 2D 1L
Auxerre
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Lens vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Lens 2 · draws 1 · Auxerre 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Lens | 1-0 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Auxerre | 1-2 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Lens | 0-4 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-12-14 | Auxerre | 2-2 | Lens | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Lens, previous: Lyon vs Lens prediction
- Lens, next: Strasbourg – Lens, 2026-08-29
- Auxerre, previous: Lille v Auxerre analysis
- Auxerre, next: Auxerre – Angers, 2026-08-29