Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 2

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

· Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille· Referee Eric Wattellier

Full time2 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Paris Saint Germain to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LilleDrawParis Saint Germain

Why this pick: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Lille 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LilleParis Saint Germain
1.58 xG per 90 2.18
1.35 npxG per 90 1.95
11.5 PPDA 10.7
7.8 Deep completions per 90 9.3
1.79 xPTS per 90 2.00

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLilleDrawParis Saint Germain
Model42%28%30%
Market21%24%55%
Published26%25%49%
Edge+5%+1%-6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-23.

Opened 1.96Now 1.73 -0.23
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Lille3.614.55+0.94
Draw4.073.90-0.17
Paris Saint Germain1.961.73-0.23

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Lille and Paris Saint Germain expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.51Lille
1.12Paris Saint Germain
Total expected goals
2.63
Attack rating (Lille / Paris Saint Germain)
0.95 / 1.25
Defence rating (Lille / Paris Saint Germain)
0.73 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.1% 8.4% 4.9% 1.8% 0.7% 1 10.8% 12.8% 7.0% 2.6% 0.9% 2 8.0% 9.0% 5.0% 1.9% 0.7% 3 3.8% 4.3% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 4+ 1.9% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Lille goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 73%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 25%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Lille vs Paris Saint Germain

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Lille26%3.83
Draw25%3.97
Paris Saint Germain49%2.05
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.544%2.28
Under 2.556%1.78
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.02
No51%1.98
Double chance1X (Lille or draw)51%1.95
12 (either side)75%1.34
X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain)74%1.35
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win by 2+12%8.57
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Lille and Paris Saint Germain recent form

Lille 3W 2D 1L
Paris Saint Germain 2W 3D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Paris Saint Germain away

Record (W-D-L)
0-1-0
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.00
Clean sheets
0 of 1

League matches this season before kick-off: Lille at home only, Paris Saint Germain away only.

Injuries & availability

Lille absences

  • H. Igamane knee injury
  • M. Fernandez-Pardo transfer negotiations

Paris Saint Germain absences

  • B. Barcola inactive
  • I. Mbaye inactive
  • N. Mendes suspended
  • O. Dembele rest

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Lille vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Lille 0 · draws 2 · Paris Saint Germain 8.

LilleDrawsParis Saint Germain
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-01-16Paris Saint Germain3-0LilleLigue 1
2025-10-05Lille1-1Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2025-03-01Paris Saint Germain4-1LilleLigue 1
2024-09-01Lille1-3Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2024-02-10Paris Saint Germain3-1LilleLigue 1
2023-12-17Lille1-1Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2023-02-19Paris Saint Germain4-3LilleLigue 1
2022-08-21Lille1-7Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2022-02-06Lille1-5Paris Saint GermainLigue 1
2021-10-29Paris Saint Germain2-1LilleLigue 1

Other Matchday 2 fixtures

Before and after this match