Updated

Ligue 1 · Matchday 1

Toulouse vs Lyon

· Stadium Municipal, Toulouse· Referee Guillaume Paradis

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Toulouse to win

Bblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ToulouseDrawLyon

Why this pick: Toulouse vs Lyon

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Toulouse 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

ToulouseLyon
1.27 xG per 90 1.53
1.27 npxG per 90 1.37
14.7 PPDA 18.5
5.7 Deep completions per 90 9.4
1.36 xPTS per 90 1.32

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Toulouse vs Lyon: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceToulouseDrawLyon
Model40%26%35%
Market40%28%32%
Published40%27%33%
Edge0%-1%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Toulouse vs Lyon odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Toulouse, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.91Now 2.40 -0.51
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Toulouse2.912.40-0.51
Draw3.503.40-0.10
Lyon2.352.95+0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Toulouse and Lyon expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.55Toulouse
1.36Lyon
Total expected goals
2.92
Attack rating (Toulouse / Lyon)
0.96 / 1.03
Defence rating (Toulouse / Lyon)
1.07 / 1.01

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Toulouse vs Lyon score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 7.7% 5.4% 2.5% 1.1% 1 8.3% 12.1% 8.0% 3.6% 1.7% 2 6.4% 8.7% 5.9% 2.7% 1.2% 3 3.1% 4.3% 2.9% 1.3% 0.6% 4+ 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 0.7% 0.3%

Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Toulouse vs Lyon goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 54%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Toulouse vs Lyon

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Toulouse40%2.52
Draw27%3.65
Lyon33%3.04
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.554%1.85
Under 2.546%2.18
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.73
No42%2.37
Double chance1X (Toulouse or draw)67%1.49
12 (either side)73%1.38
X2 (draw or Lyon)60%1.66
Handicap -1Toulouse win by 2+19%5.18
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Toulouse and Lyon recent form

Toulouse 2W 2D 2L
Lyon 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Toulouse vs Lyon head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Toulouse 2 · draws 1 · Lyon 3.

ToulouseDrawsLyon
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Toulouse2-1LyonLigue 1
2025-10-05Lyon1-2ToulouseLigue 1
2025-01-18Lyon0-0ToulouseLigue 1
2024-09-29Toulouse1-2LyonLigue 1
2024-03-15Toulouse2-3LyonLigue 1
2023-12-10Lyon3-0ToulouseLigue 1

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match