Le Mans vs Brest: model vs market
| Source | Le Mans | Draw | Brest |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68% | 19% | 13% |
| Market | 38% | 28% | 34% |
| Published | 45% | 26% | 29% |
| Edge | +8% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.83.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Le Mans below our published probability: +7.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Le Mans vs Brest odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Le Mans, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 2.55 | 2.50 | -0.05 |
| Draw | 3.41 | 3.35 | -0.06 |
| Brest | 2.70 | 2.81 | +0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Mans and Brest expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.14
- Attack rating (Le Mans / Brest)
- 1.17 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Le Mans / Brest)
- 0.71 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Mans vs Brest score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Mans goals. Columns: Brest goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Mans vs Brest goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Mans vs Brest
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Mans | 45% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Brest | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58% | 1.71 |
| Under 2.5 | 42% | 2.40 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.98 |
| No | 49% | 2.02 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Mans or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Brest) | 55% | 1.83 | |
| Handicap -1 | Le Mans win by 2+ | 45% | 2.24 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Mans and Brest recent form
Le Mans
3W 3D 0L
Brest
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Le Mans, next: Rennes vs Le Mans: odds and pick
- Brest, previous: Brest – Angers, 2026-05-17
- Brest, next: Brest vs Toulouse prediction