Why this pick: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Rennes 10, Paris Saint Germain 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain: model vs market
| Source | Rennes | Draw | Paris Saint Germain |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30% | 21% | 49% |
| Market | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Published | 20% | 20% | 59% |
| Edge | +3% | 0% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.17 vs 1.74.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris Saint Germain, 8 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.45 | 5.51 | +4.06 |
| Draw | 4.90 | 4.70 | -0.20 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 6.00 | 1.50 | -4.50 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Rennes and Paris Saint Germain expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.91
- Attack rating (Rennes / Paris Saint Germain)
- 1.16 / 1.32
- Defence rating (Rennes / Paris Saint Germain)
- 1.33 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Rennes goals. Columns: Paris Saint Germain goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 72%
- No goals (0–0)
- 2%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rennes | 20% | 4.95 |
| Draw | 20% | 4.93 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | 59% | 1.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 | 27% | 3.75 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72% | 1.39 |
| No | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Rennes or draw) | 41% | 2.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris Saint Germain) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris Saint Germain win by 2+ | 30% | 3.38 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Rennes and Paris Saint Germain recent form
Rennes
4W 0D 2L
Paris Saint Germain
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Rennes 1 · draws 1 · Paris Saint Germain 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Rennes | 3-1 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Paris Saint Germain | 5-0 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Rennes | 1-4 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-27 | Paris Saint Germain | 3-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-25 | Paris Saint Germain | 1-1 | Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Rennes | 1-3 | Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Rennes, previous: Marseille – Rennes, 2026-05-17
- Rennes, next: Rennes vs Le Mans: odds and pick
- Paris Saint Germain, previous: Paris FC vs Paris Saint Germain: odds and pick
- Paris Saint Germain, next: Lille vs Paris Saint Germain prediction