Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: model vs market
| Source | Estac Troyes | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Published | 37% | 26% | 38% |
| Edge | +7% | -1% | -6% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Estac Troyes | 3.02 | 3.25 | +0.23 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.50 | +0.00 |
| Paris FC | 2.30 | 2.16 | -0.14 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Estac Troyes and Paris FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.34
- Attack rating (Estac Troyes / Paris FC)
- 1.32 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Estac Troyes / Paris FC)
- 0.78 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Estac Troyes goals. Columns: Paris FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Estac Troyes vs Paris FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Estac Troyes vs Paris FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estac Troyes | 37% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.91 | |
| Paris FC | 38% | 2.64 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Estac Troyes or draw) | 62% | 1.61 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris FC) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win by 2+ | 8% | 13.04 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Estac Troyes and Paris FC recent form
Estac Troyes
3W 1D 2L
Paris FC
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Estac Troyes, next: Lorient vs Estac Troyes: odds and pick
- Paris FC, previous: Paris FC vs Paris Saint Germain: odds and pick
- Paris FC, next: Paris FC v Nice analysis