Why this pick: Nice vs Lorient
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Nice 10, Lorient 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Nice vs Lorient: model vs market
| Source | Nice | Draw | Lorient |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 25% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Edge | 0% | -1% | +1% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Nice vs Lorient odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 6 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nice | 2.11 | 2.21 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.50 | 3.30 | -0.20 |
| Lorient | 3.40 | 3.40 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Nice and Lorient expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.03
- Attack rating (Nice / Lorient)
- 0.95 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Nice / Lorient)
- 1.12 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Nice vs Lorient score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Nice goals. Columns: Lorient goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Nice vs Lorient goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Nice vs Lorient
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nice | 43% | 2.34 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.58 | |
| Lorient | 29% | 3.40 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Nice or draw) | 71% | 1.42 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| X2 (draw or Lorient) | 57% | 1.75 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 21% | 4.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Nice and Lorient recent form
Nice
1W 3D 2L
Lorient
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Nice vs Lorient head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Nice 1 · draws 3 · Lorient 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Lorient | 0-0 | Nice | Coupe de France |
| 2026-02-22 | Nice | 3-3 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Lorient | 3-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-19 | Nice | 3-0 | Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-20 | Lorient | 1-1 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Nice, previous: Nice v Metz analysis
- Nice, next: Paris FC v Nice analysis
- Lorient, previous: Lorient vs Le Havre: odds and pick
- Lorient, next: Lorient vs Estac Troyes: odds and pick