Why this pick: Le Havre vs Monaco
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Le Havre 10, Monaco 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Le Havre vs Monaco: model vs market
| Source | Le Havre | Draw | Monaco |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 23% | 43% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| Published | 28% | 24% | 48% |
| Edge | +2% | 0% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Le Havre vs Monaco odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Monaco, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Le Havre | 3.60 | 3.70 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.80 | 3.85 | +0.05 |
| Monaco | 1.91 | 1.95 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Le Havre and Monaco expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.46
- Attack rating (Le Havre / Monaco)
- 0.91 / 1.24
- Defence rating (Le Havre / Monaco)
- 1.17 / 1.15
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Le Havre vs Monaco score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Le Havre goals. Columns: Monaco goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Le Havre vs Monaco goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Le Havre vs Monaco
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 28% | 3.59 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Monaco | 48% | 2.10 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.97 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Le Havre or draw) | 52% | 1.91 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Monaco) | 72% | 1.39 | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win by 2+ | 23% | 4.27 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Le Havre and Monaco recent form
Le Havre
1W 4D 1L
Monaco
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Le Havre vs Monaco head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Le Havre 0 · draws 4 · Monaco 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Le Havre | 0-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Monaco | 3-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Le Havre | 1-1 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Monaco | 3-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-02-04 | Monaco | 1-1 | Le Havre | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-11 | Le Havre | 0-0 | Monaco | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Marseille v Strasbourg — match page 2026-08-21
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Le Havre, previous: Lorient vs Le Havre: odds and pick
- Le Havre, next: Lyon v Le Havre analysis
- Monaco, previous: Strasbourg vs Monaco prediction
- Monaco, next: Monaco vs Marseille prediction