Why this pick: Marseille vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Marseille 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Marseille vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Marseille | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 20% | 27% |
| Market | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Published | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Edge | -1% | -1% | +1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Marseille vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Marseille, 3 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marseille | 1.73 | 1.74 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.05 | 4.10 | +0.05 |
| Strasbourg | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Marseille and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.73
- Attack rating (Marseille / Strasbourg)
- 1.38 / 0.96
- Defence rating (Marseille / Strasbourg)
- 1.16 / 1.08
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Marseille vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Marseille goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Marseille vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 73%
- No goals (0–0)
- 3%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Marseille vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.44 | |
| Strasbourg | 23% | 4.32 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 2.5 | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73% | 1.37 |
| No | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Marseille or draw) | 77% | 1.30 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win by 2+ | 35% | 2.82 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Marseille and Strasbourg recent form
Marseille
3W 1D 2L
Strasbourg
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Marseille vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Marseille 1 · draws 4 · Strasbourg 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Marseille | 2-2 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-19 | Marseille | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Strasbourg | 1-0 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-01-12 | Marseille | 1-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Strasbourg | 1-1 | Marseille | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Lens vs Auxerre — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Nice vs Lorient 2026-08-22
- Toulouse v Lyon — match page 2026-08-22
- Estac Troyes vs Paris FC — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Le Mans vs Brest 2026-08-22
- Angers v Lille — match page 2026-08-23
- Le Havre vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-08-23
- Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain 2026-08-23
Before and after this match
- Marseille, previous: Marseille – Rennes, 2026-05-17
- Marseille, next: Monaco vs Marseille prediction
- Strasbourg, previous: Strasbourg vs Monaco prediction
- Strasbourg, next: Strasbourg – Lens, 2026-08-29