Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 2

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente

· Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga· Referee Gustavo Correia

Full time1 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was SC Braga to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
SC BragaDrawGIL Vicente

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceSC BragaDrawGIL Vicente
Model35%34%31%
Market61%24%15%
Published55%26%19%
Edge-6%+2%+4%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente odds movement

Median bookmaker price on SC Braga, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-17.

Opened 1.56Now 1.53 -0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
SC Braga1.561.53-0.03
Draw3.803.95+0.15
GIL Vicente5.926.33+0.40

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

SC Braga and GIL Vicente expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.04SC Braga
0.95GIL Vicente
Total expected goals
1.99
Attack rating (SC Braga / GIL Vicente)
0.79 / 0.90
Defence rating (SC Braga / GIL Vicente)
0.87 / 0.90

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 15.0% 11.7% 6.2% 2.0% 0.6% 1 12.8% 14.9% 6.4% 2.0% 0.6% 2 7.4% 7.0% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 3 2.5% 2.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%

Rows: SC Braga goals. Columns: GIL Vicente goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 85%
Over 1.5 60%
Over 2.5 32%
Over 3.5 14%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
15%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for SC Braga vs GIL Vicente

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2SC Braga55%1.82
Draw26%3.81
GIL Vicente19%5.30
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.532%3.12
Under 2.568%1.47
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.70
Double chance1X (SC Braga or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)74%1.36
X2 (draw or GIL Vicente)45%2.22
Handicap -1SC Braga win by 2+14%6.97
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

SC Braga and GIL Vicente recent form

SC Braga 2W 1D 3L
GIL Vicente 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

SC Braga at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

GIL Vicente away

Record (W-D-L)
1-1-1
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: SC Braga at home only, GIL Vicente away only.

Expected lineups

SC Braga lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes
  2. 44 A. Bajrami
  3. 6 Vitor Carvalho
  4. 14 G. Lagerbielke
  5. 50 Diego Rodrigues
  6. 29 J. Gorby
  7. 8 João Moutinho
  8. 7 Diogo Travassos
  9. 10 Pau Victor
  10. 21 Ricardo Horta
  11. 19 J. Wind

Bench: Víctor Gómez, Fran Navarro, Gabriel Silva, Tiago Sá, M. Dorgeles, Sergio Barcia, D. Huseinbašić, B. Arrey-Mbi, E. Tıknaz, A. Barišić, Gabri Martínez, João Carvalho

GIL Vicente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Lucão
  2. 45 David Moreira
  3. 39 Jonathan Buatu
  4. 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
  5. 47 Ricardo Esgaio
  6. 86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste
  7. 12 A. Lausen
  8. 20 Gil Pinto Martins
  9. 10 Santi García
  10. 77 Murilo
  11. 99 M. Kaba

Bench: A. Picornell, José Silva, Espigares, Zé Carlos, T. Touré, Walace, Joelson Fernandes, Gui Beleza, A. Moreira, M. Fernández, Gonçalo Maia Pereira, Samuel

SC Braga vs GIL Vicente head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: SC Braga 5 · draws 2 · GIL Vicente 3.

SC BragaDrawsGIL Vicente
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-14GIL Vicente2-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2025-09-14SC Braga0-1GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2025-02-09SC Braga2-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2024-09-01GIL Vicente0-0SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2024-03-16SC Braga2-1GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2023-10-28GIL Vicente3-3SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2023-04-16SC Braga1-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2022-10-30GIL Vicente0-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga
2022-03-13SC Braga0-1GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2021-10-25GIL Vicente0-1SC BragaPrimeira Liga

Before and after this match