Updated

Primeira Liga · Matchday 9

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto

· Estadio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos· Referee Luis Miguel Branco Godinho

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Porto to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GIL VicenteDrawFC Porto

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGIL VicenteDrawFC Porto
Model30%29%41%
Market14%22%65%
Published18%24%59%
Edge+4%+2%-6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Porto, 25 snapshots since 2026-10-12.

Opened 1.43Now 1.47 +0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
GIL Vicente7.607.00-0.60
Draw4.224.33+0.11
FC Porto1.431.47+0.04

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

GIL Vicente and FC Porto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.17GIL Vicente
1.40FC Porto
Total expected goals
2.56
Attack rating (GIL Vicente / FC Porto)
0.93 / 1.26
Defence rating (GIL Vicente / FC Porto)
0.90 / 0.86

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.0% 9.5% 7.5% 3.5% 1.7% 1 7.7% 13.8% 8.8% 4.1% 1.9% 2 5.2% 7.3% 5.1% 2.4% 1.1% 3 2.0% 2.8% 2.0% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 0.8% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%

Rows: GIL Vicente goals. Columns: FC Porto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for GIL Vicente vs FC Porto

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2GIL Vicente18%5.64
Draw24%4.22
FC Porto59%1.71
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.12
Under 2.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.89
No47%2.13
Double chance1X (GIL Vicente or draw)41%2.41
12 (either side)76%1.31
X2 (draw or FC Porto)82%1.22
Handicap -1FC Porto win by 2+20%5.01
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

GIL Vicente and FC Porto recent form

GIL Vicente 3W 1D 2L
FC Porto 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

GIL Vicente at home

Record (W-D-L)
2-1-1
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

FC Porto away

Record (W-D-L)
4-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
2.75
Goals against / match
0.50
Clean sheets
2 of 4
  • They have won 8 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game on the road against 2.2 at home.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: GIL Vicente at home only, FC Porto away only.

Expected lineups

GIL Vicente lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 30 Lucão
  2. 45 David Moreira
  3. 4 M. Elimbi Gilbert
  4. 39 Jonathan Buatu
  5. 47 Ricardo Esgaio
  6. 86 Diogo Ferreira Prioste
  7. 12 A. Lausen
  8. 11 Joelson Fernandes
  9. 10 Santi García
  10. 77 Murilo
  11. 9 Walace

Bench: A. Picornell, José Silva, Espigares, Zé Carlos, T. Touré, Guilherme, Gil Pinto Martins, A. Moreira, M. Fernández, Gonçalo Maia Pereira, Samuel, M. Kaba

FC Porto lineup · 4-3-3

  1. 99 Diogo Costa
  2. 12 Z. Sanusi
  3. 4 J. Kiwior
  4. 5 J. Bednarek
  5. 20 Alberto Baio
  6. 10 Gabri Veiga
  7. 13 P. Rosario
  8. 8 Victor Mow Froholdt
  9. 11 Pepê Aquino
  10. 19 André Silva
  11. 17 Borja Sainz

Bench: C. Smalling, Samu, Cláudio Ramos, Hwang In-Beom, N. Pérez, A. Varela, Andorinha, S. Giménez, Gabriel Mec, S. Fofana, Martim Fernandes, Francisco Moura

GIL Vicente vs FC Porto head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: GIL Vicente 3 · draws 1 · FC Porto 6.

GIL VicenteDrawsFC Porto
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-07-22GIL Vicente1-0FC PortoFriendlies Clubs
2026-01-26FC Porto3-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2025-08-18GIL Vicente0-2FC PortoPrimeira Liga
2025-01-19GIL Vicente3-1FC PortoPrimeira Liga
2024-08-10FC Porto3-0GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2024-02-25GIL Vicente1-1FC PortoPrimeira Liga
2023-09-23FC Porto2-1GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2023-02-26FC Porto1-2GIL VicentePrimeira Liga
2022-12-21FC Porto2-0GIL VicenteTaça da Liga
2022-09-03GIL Vicente0-2FC PortoPrimeira Liga

Other Matchday 9 fixtures

Before and after this match