Updated

UEFA Europa Conference League · League Stage - 1

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga

· Parken Stadium, Copenhagen· Referee J. Kooij

Full time3 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was FC Copenhagen to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
FC CopenhagenDrawSC Braga

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFC CopenhagenDrawSC Braga
Model64%25%12%
Market38%30%32%
Published44%29%27%
Edge+7%-1%-5%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 0.62.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices FC Copenhagen below our published probability: +6.5 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga odds movement

Median bookmaker price on FC Copenhagen, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-09.

Opened 2.38Now 2.50 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
FC Copenhagen2.382.50+0.12
Draw3.253.10-0.15
SC Braga2.982.92-0.06

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75FC Copenhagen
0.62SC Braga
Total expected goals
2.37
Attack rating (FC Copenhagen / SC Braga)
1.50 / 0.85
Defence rating (FC Copenhagen / SC Braga)
0.62 / 0.71

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 1 15.3% 11.2% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 2 14.2% 8.9% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1% 3 8.3% 5.2% 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 4+ 5.4% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: FC Copenhagen goals. Columns: SC Braga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 70%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 22%
Both teams to score
39%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for FC Copenhagen vs SC Braga

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2FC Copenhagen44%2.27
Draw29%3.46
SC Braga27%3.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.36
Under 2.558%1.73
Both teams to scoreYes39%2.54
No61%1.65
Double chance1X (FC Copenhagen or draw)73%1.37
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or SC Braga)56%1.79
Handicap -1FC Copenhagen win by 2+38%2.66
Push (exactly one goal)26%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

FC Copenhagen and SC Braga recent form

FC Copenhagen 5W 0D 1L
SC Braga 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

FC Copenhagen at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-0-0
Win rate
100%
Goals for / match
3.67
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
  • They average 3.7 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

SC Braga away

Record (W-D-L)
1-2-0
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
0.33
Goals against / match
0.00
Clean sheets
3 of 3
  • They have won 4 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).

League matches this season before kick-off: FC Copenhagen at home only, SC Braga away only.

Expected lineups

FC Copenhagen lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Diant Ramaj
  2. 24 Birger Meling
  3. 6 Ákos Markgráf
  4. 2 Felix Beijmo
  5. 20 Junnosuke Suzuki
  6. 36 William Clem
  7. 33 Alex Král
  8. 16 Robert
  9. 10 Mohamed Elyounoussi
  10. 12 Thapelo Maseko
  11. 39 Viktor Bjarki Dadason

Bench: Asger Sørensen, Maher Carrizo, Rodrigo Huescas, Andreas Cornelius, Marcos López, Thomas Delaney, Hunor Németh, Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson, Marvin Nasnas, Geovanni Vianney, Gunnar Orri Olsen, Tobias Breum-Harild

SC Braga lineup · 3-4-3

  1. 31 Bernardo Fontes
  2. 26 Bright Arrey-Mbi
  3. 14 Gustaf Lagerbielke
  4. 22 Sergio Barcia
  5. 34 Demir Ege Tıknaz
  6. 8 João Moutinho
  7. 29 Jean-Baptiste Gorby
  8. 23 Denis Huseinbašić
  9. 21 Ricardo Horta
  10. 19 Jonas Wind
  11. 7 Diogo Travassos

Bench: Victor Gómez, Vítor Carvalho, Fran Navarro, Pau Víctor, Gabriel Silva, Tiago Sá, Tomás Marqués, Jovan Milošević, Mario Dorgeles, Adrian Leon Barišić, Adrian Bajrami, Diego Rodrigues

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