Why this pick: Arsenal vs Everton
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Arsenal 10, Everton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Arsenal vs Everton: model vs market
| Source | Arsenal | Draw | Everton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56% | 26% | 19% |
| Market | 65% | 23% | 12% |
| Published | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Arsenal vs Everton odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Arsenal, 27 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.37 | 1.47 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 4.70 | 4.22 | -0.48 |
| Everton | 7.00 | 7.80 | +0.80 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Arsenal and Everton expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.82
- Attack rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 1.23 / 1.16
- Defence rating (Arsenal / Everton)
- 0.72 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Arsenal vs Everton score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Everton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Arsenal vs Everton goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Arsenal vs Everton
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arsenal | 63% | 1.59 |
| Draw | 23% | 4.28 | |
| Everton | 14% | 7.20 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.25 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Arsenal or draw) | 86% | 1.16 |
| 12 (either side) | 77% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Everton) | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Handicap -1 | Arsenal win by 2+ | 33% | 3.00 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Arsenal and Everton recent form
Arsenal
4W 1D 1L
Everton
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Arsenal at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-0
- Win rate
- 100%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Everton away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-0
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 3
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Arsenal at home only, Everton away only.
Injuries & availability
Arsenal absences
-
B. Saka
thigh injury
- C. Tzolis hamstring injury
-
W. Saliba
back injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Expected lineups
Arsenal lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 David Raya
- 49 M. Lewis-Skelly
- 6 Gabriel Magalhães
- 15 E. Konsa
- 4 B. White
- 23 Mikel Merino
- 41 D. Rice
- 10 E. Eze
- 8 M. Ødegaard
- 20 N. Madueke
- 14 V. Gyökeres
Bench: Cristhian Mosquera, P. Hincapié, J. Timber, Kepa, K. Havertz, R. Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Bruno Guimarães, M. Dowman
Everton lineup · 4-2-3-1
- 1 J. Pickford
- 16 V. Mykolenko
- 6 J. Tarkowski
- 15 J. O'Brien
- 34 M. Röhl
- 37 J. Garner
- 45 H. Armstrong
- 19 Tyrique George
- 8 K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 22 B. Johnson
- 11 T. Barry
Bench: A. Maitland-Niles, M. Keane, M. Travers, T. Dibling, C. Nørgaard, C. Alcaraz, H. Hackney, T. King, B. Graham
Arsenal vs Everton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Arsenal 7 · draws 2 · Everton 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2025-12-20 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2025-04-05 | Everton | 1-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2024-12-14 | Arsenal | 0-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2024-05-19 | Arsenal | 2-1 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-09-17 | Everton | 0-1 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2023-03-01 | Arsenal | 4-0 | Everton | Premier League |
| 2023-02-04 | Everton | 1-0 | Arsenal | Premier League |
| 2022-07-16 | Arsenal | 2-0 | Everton | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-05-22 | Arsenal | 5-1 | Everton | Premier League |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ipswich v Nottingham Forest — match page 2026-10-23
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Coventry vs Fulham — team news & stats 2026-10-24
- Chelsea vs Tottenham 2026-10-24
- Liverpool vs Brighton 2026-10-25
- Manchester United v Bournemouth — match page 2026-10-25
- Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United — team news & stats 2026-10-25
- Hull City vs Brentford 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Arsenal, previous: Nottingham Forest – Arsenal, 2026-10-18
- Arsenal, next: Liverpool – Arsenal, 2026-11-01
- Everton, previous: Everton – Chelsea, 2026-10-17
- Everton, next: Newcastle United v Everton analysis