Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Liverpool vs Brighton

· Anfield, Liverpool· Referee Samuel Barrott

Full time2 – 0

TipsterGrid prediction was Liverpool to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LiverpoolDrawBrighton

Why this pick: Liverpool vs Brighton

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Liverpool 10, Brighton 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

LiverpoolBrighton
1.24 xG per 90 2.40
1.24 npxG per 90 2.29
8.5 PPDA 6.8
6.7 Deep completions per 90 5.9
1.34 xPTS per 90 1.98

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Liverpool vs Brighton: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLiverpoolDrawBrighton
Model36%23%41%
Market45%25%30%
Published43%24%33%
Edge-2%0%+3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Liverpool vs Brighton odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Liverpool, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 1.85Now 2.10 +0.25
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Liverpool1.852.10+0.25
Draw3.703.85+0.15
Brighton3.803.20-0.60

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Liverpool and Brighton expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.82Liverpool
2.04Brighton
Total expected goals
3.85
Attack rating (Liverpool / Brighton)
1.55 / 1.42
Defence rating (Liverpool / Brighton)
1.16 / 0.76

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Liverpool vs Brighton score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.1% 2.8% 4.0% 2.7% 2.2% 1 2.6% 8.7% 7.7% 5.2% 4.2% 2 3.5% 7.2% 7.3% 5.0% 4.0% 3 2.2% 4.6% 4.6% 3.2% 2.6% 4+ 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.3% 1.9%

Rows: Liverpool goals. Columns: Brighton goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Liverpool vs Brighton goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 92%
Over 2.5 75%
Over 3.5 56%
Both teams to score
75%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Liverpool vs Brighton

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Liverpool43%2.32
Draw24%4.11
Brighton33%3.07
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.575%1.33
Under 2.525%4.06
Both teams to scoreYes75%1.33
No25%4.03
Double chance1X (Liverpool or draw)67%1.48
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Brighton)57%1.76
Handicap -1Liverpool win by 2+20%5.07
Push (exactly one goal)16%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Liverpool and Brighton recent form

Liverpool 5W 0D 1L
Brighton 5W 1D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Liverpool at home

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-1
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.

Brighton away

Record (W-D-L)
2-0-1
Win rate
67%
Goals for / match
3.33
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
2 of 3
  • They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 3.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.

League matches this season before kick-off: Liverpool at home only, Brighton away only.

Injuries & availability

Liverpool absences

  • A. Nallo leg injury
  • C. Bradley knee injury
  • D. Szoboszlai muscle injury
  • G. Leoni knee injury
  • H. Ekitike achilles tendon injury
  • J. Frimpong muscle injury
  • V. Munoz knee injury

Brighton absences

  • E. Ferguson ankle injury
  • F. Azeez abdominal strain
  • K. Mitoma hamstring injury
  • M. Wieffer knee injury
  • P. Struijk rest
  • S. Tzimas knee injury
  • Y. Minteh injury
  • Z. Yohanna injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Liverpool lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Alisson Becker
  2. 6 M. Kerkez
  3. 4 V. van Dijk
  4. 5 J. Jacquet
  5. 33 R. Araújo
  6. 10 A. Mac Allister
  7. 38 R. Gravenberch
  8. 29 B. Barcola
  9. 7 F. Wirtz
  10. 18 C. Gakpo
  11. 9 A. Isak

Bench: J. Gomez, W. Endo, F. Chiesa, K. Tsimikas, G. Mamardashvili, T. Nyoni, J. McConnell, L. Koumas, R. Ngumoha

Brighton lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 B. Verbruggen
  2. 21 O. Boscagli
  3. 5 L. Dunk
  4. 44 L. Vušković
  5. 24 F. Kadıoğlu
  6. 14 José María Andrés Baixauli
  7. 13 P. Groß
  8. 29 M. De Cuyper
  9. 26 Y. Ayari
  10. 25 D. Gómez
  11. 19 C. Kostoulas

Bench: J. Hadjam, J. Hinshelwood, G. Rutter, P. David, I. Osman, Costinha, J. Steele, M. O'Riley, M. Yalcouyé

Liverpool vs Brighton head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Liverpool 5 · draws 1 · Brighton 4.

LiverpoolDrawsBrighton
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-21Brighton2-1LiverpoolPremier League
2026-02-14Liverpool3-0BrightonEngland FA Cup
2025-12-13Liverpool2-0BrightonPremier League
2025-05-19Brighton3-2LiverpoolPremier League
2024-11-02Liverpool2-1BrightonPremier League
2024-10-30Brighton2-3LiverpoolLeague Cup
2024-03-31Liverpool2-1BrightonPremier League
2023-10-08Brighton2-2LiverpoolPremier League
2023-01-29Brighton2-1LiverpoolFA Cup
2023-01-14Brighton3-0LiverpoolPremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match