Updated

Premier League · Matchday 8

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

· Selhurst Park, London· Referee Paul Tierney

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Newcastle United to win

Bblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

7% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Crystal PalaceDrawNewcastle United

Why this pick: Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Crystal Palace 10, Newcastle United 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

Crystal PalaceNewcastle United
1.37 xG per 90 1.23
1.37 npxG per 90 1.14
18.2 PPDA 10.3
5.0 Deep completions per 90 7.9
0.71 xPTS per 90 1.02

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCrystal PalaceDrawNewcastle United
Model47%23%30%
Market33%26%40%
Published37%26%38%
Edge+4%-1%-3%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Newcastle United, 28 snapshots since 2026-10-11.

Opened 2.51Now 2.37 -0.14
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Crystal Palace2.592.88+0.29
Draw3.673.64-0.03
Newcastle United2.512.37-0.14

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Crystal Palace and Newcastle United expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.04Crystal Palace
1.69Newcastle United
Total expected goals
3.73
Attack rating (Crystal Palace / Newcastle United)
1.17 / 1.02
Defence rating (Crystal Palace / Newcastle United)
1.35 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.3% 2.5% 3.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1 3.5% 9.0% 6.6% 3.7% 2.3% 2 5.0% 8.4% 7.1% 4.0% 2.5% 3 3.5% 6.0% 5.1% 2.9% 1.8% 4+ 3.1% 5.3% 4.5% 2.5% 1.5%

Rows: Crystal Palace goals. Columns: Newcastle United goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 97%
Over 1.5 91%
Over 2.5 74%
Over 3.5 53%
Both teams to score
73%
No goals (0–0)
3%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Crystal Palace37%2.72
Draw26%3.92
Newcastle United38%2.65
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.574%1.36
Under 2.526%3.79
Both teams to scoreYes73%1.37
No27%3.72
Double chance1X (Crystal Palace or draw)62%1.61
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Newcastle United)63%1.58
Handicap -1Newcastle United win by 2+15%6.63
Push (exactly one goal)15%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Crystal Palace and Newcastle United recent form

Crystal Palace 2W 2D 2L
Newcastle United 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Crystal Palace at home

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
0 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.

Newcastle United away

Record (W-D-L)
1-0-2
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
2.67
Clean sheets
1 of 3
  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Crystal Palace at home only, Newcastle United away only.

Injuries & availability

Crystal Palace absences

  • C. Riad knee injury
  • D. Henderson foot injury
  • J. Larsen injury
  • Q. Timber injury
  • T. Tomiyasu calf injury

Newcastle United absences

  • A. Elanga knee injury
  • E. Jaouen muscle injury
  • J. Ramsey thigh injury
  • V. Livramento knee injury

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Expected lineups

Crystal Palace lineup · 3-4-2-1

  1. 44 W. Benítez
  2. 6 J. Canvot
  3. 5 A. Disasi
  4. 26 C. Richards
  5. 3 T. Mitchell
  6. 18 D. Kamada
  7. 20 A. Wharton
  8. 25 A. Khalaili
  9. 10 Yeremy Pino
  10. 11 D. McNeil
  11. 14 J. Mateta

Bench: J. Lerma, E. Nketiah, W. Hughes, D. Osorio, C. Doucouré, E. Guessand, Óscar Mingueza, R. Matthews, B. Chilwell

Newcastle United lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 21 L. Horníček
  2. 3 L. Hall
  3. 33 D. Burn
  4. 5 F. Schär
  5. 37 A. Dedić
  6. 7 Joelinton
  7. 6 Nico González
  8. 11 H. Barnes
  9. 28 J. Willock
  10. 23 J. Murphy
  11. 10 W. Osula

Bench: N. Pope, S. Botman, A. Bamba, Y. Wissa, M. Thiaw, Sean Steur, B. Touré, A. Elanga, J. Ramsey

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Crystal Palace 2 · draws 4 · Newcastle United 4.

Crystal PalaceDrawsNewcastle United
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Crystal Palace2-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2026-01-04Newcastle United2-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2025-04-16Newcastle United5-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2024-11-30Crystal Palace1-1Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2024-04-24Crystal Palace2-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2023-10-21Newcastle United4-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2023-01-21Crystal Palace0-0Newcastle UnitedPremier League
2022-11-09Newcastle United0-0Crystal PalaceLeague Cup
2022-09-03Newcastle United0-0Crystal PalacePremier League
2022-04-20Newcastle United1-0Crystal PalacePremier League

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Before and after this match