Why this pick: Atalanta vs Sassuolo
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Atalanta 10, Sassuolo 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo: model vs market
| Source | Atalanta | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
| Published | 54% | 24% | 22% |
| Edge | -7% | +1% | +6% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atalanta, 9 snapshots since 2026-08-20.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atalanta | 1.53 | 1.55 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 4.25 | 4.25 | +0.00 |
| Sassuolo | 6.00 | 6.00 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atalanta and Sassuolo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.09
- Attack rating (Atalanta / Sassuolo)
- 1.03 / 1.28
- Defence rating (Atalanta / Sassuolo)
- 1.10 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atalanta goals. Columns: Sassuolo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 64%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atalanta vs Sassuolo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Sassuolo | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64% | 1.56 |
| No | 36% | 2.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atalanta or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Sassuolo) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win by 2+ | 16% | 6.12 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Atalanta and Sassuolo recent form
Atalanta
1W 3D 2L
Sassuolo
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Atalanta 2 · draws 0 · Sassuolo 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Sassuolo | 2-1 | Atalanta | Serie A |
| 2025-11-09 | Atalanta | 0-3 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2024-02-17 | Atalanta | 3-0 | Sassuolo | Serie A |
| 2023-08-20 | Sassuolo | 0-2 | Atalanta | Serie A |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
- Udinese vs Como — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Inter vs Monza 2026-08-22
- Genoa v Napoli — match page 2026-08-22
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari — team news & stats 2026-08-22
- Frosinone vs Juventus 2026-08-23
- Venezia v Lecce — match page 2026-08-23
- Torino vs AC Milan 2026-08-23
- Bologna v Lazio — match page 2026-08-24
Before and after this match
- Atalanta, previous: Fiorentina – Atalanta, 2026-05-22
- Atalanta, next: Atalanta v Bologna analysis
- Sassuolo, previous: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Sassuolo prediction
- Sassuolo, next: Sassuolo v Torino analysis