Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Genoa vs Napoli

· Luigi Ferraris, Genova· Referee Marco Di Bello, Italy

Full time0 – 2

TipsterGrid prediction was Napoli to win

Ablended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 2

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
GenoaDrawNapoli

Why this pick: Genoa vs Napoli

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Genoa 10, Napoli 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

GenoaNapoli
1.10 xG per 90 1.44
0.95 npxG per 90 1.36
10.2 PPDA 16.8
4.7 Deep completions per 90 8.8
1.16 xPTS per 90 1.69

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Genoa vs Napoli: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceGenoaDrawNapoli
Model33%31%36%
Market23%30%47%
Published25%30%44%
Edge+3%0%-3%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Genoa vs Napoli odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Napoli, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 1.85Now 2.05 +0.20
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Genoa4.684.20-0.48
Draw3.303.18-0.12
Napoli1.852.05+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Genoa and Napoli expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.31Genoa
1.37Napoli
Total expected goals
2.69
Attack rating (Genoa / Napoli)
1.18 / 1.12
Defence rating (Genoa / Napoli)
1.06 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Genoa vs Napoli score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.3% 6.9% 6.4% 3.0% 1.4% 1 6.5% 14.7% 8.4% 3.9% 1.8% 2 5.9% 8.1% 5.5% 2.5% 1.2% 3 2.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5% 4+ 1.1% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2%

Rows: Genoa goals. Columns: Napoli goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Genoa vs Napoli goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 50%
Over 3.5 28%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Genoa vs Napoli

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Genoa25%3.94
Draw30%3.29
Napoli44%2.26
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550%1.98
Under 2.550%2.02
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (Genoa or draw)56%1.79
12 (either side)70%1.44
X2 (draw or Napoli)75%1.34
Handicap -1Napoli win by 2+18%5.63
Push (exactly one goal)18%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Genoa and Napoli recent form

Genoa 1W 2D 3L
Napoli 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Genoa vs Napoli head-to-head

Last 6 meetings: Genoa 0 · draws 3 · Napoli 3.

GenoaDrawsNapoli
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-02-07Genoa2-3NapoliSerie A
2025-10-05Napoli2-1GenoaSerie A
2025-05-11Napoli2-2GenoaSerie A
2024-12-21Genoa1-2NapoliSerie A
2024-02-17Napoli1-1GenoaSerie A
2023-09-16Genoa2-2NapoliSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match