Updated

Serie A · Matchday 1

Bologna vs Lazio

· Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna· Referee Fabio Maresca, Italy

Full time0 – 1

TipsterGrid prediction was Bologna to win

Ablended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BolognaDrawLazio

Why this pick: Bologna vs Lazio

Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Bologna 10, Lazio 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.

BolognaLazio
1.20 xG per 90 1.25
1.05 npxG per 90 1.16
12.4 PPDA 20.3
5.2 Deep completions per 90 4.0
1.35 xPTS per 90 1.40

xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.

Bologna vs Lazio: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBolognaDrawLazio
Model38%31%30%
Market42%31%28%
Published41%31%28%
Edge-1%0%+1%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bologna vs Lazio odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bologna, 11 snapshots since 2026-08-20.

Opened 2.17Now 2.29 +0.12
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bologna2.172.29+0.12
Draw3.203.10-0.10
Lazio3.503.40-0.10

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bologna and Lazio expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.37Bologna
1.19Lazio
Total expected goals
2.57
Attack rating (Bologna / Lazio)
0.99 / 0.85
Defence rating (Bologna / Lazio)
1.21 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bologna vs Lazio score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.2% 6.6% 5.5% 2.2% 0.8% 1 8.0% 15.1% 7.5% 3.0% 1.2% 2 7.2% 8.6% 5.2% 2.1% 0.8% 3 3.3% 4.0% 2.4% 0.9% 0.4% 4+ 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Bologna goals. Columns: Lazio goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bologna vs Lazio goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 90%
Over 1.5 75%
Over 2.5 47%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
55%
No goals (0–0)
10%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bologna vs Lazio

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bologna41%2.45
Draw31%3.24
Lazio28%3.52
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.547%2.11
Under 2.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes55%1.83
No45%2.20
Double chance1X (Bologna or draw)72%1.40
12 (either side)69%1.45
X2 (draw or Lazio)59%1.69
Handicap -1Bologna win by 2+19%5.24
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bologna and Lazio recent form

Bologna 2W 2D 2L
Lazio 2W 0D 4L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Injuries & availability

Bologna absences

  • N. Casale muscle injury

Lazio absences

  • A. Furlanetto knee injury
  • D. Cataldi muscle injury
  • Patric ankle injury
  • S. Gigot inactive

Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.

Bologna vs Lazio head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bologna 3 · draws 3 · Lazio 4.

BolognaDrawsLazio
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-22Bologna0-2LazioSerie A
2026-02-11Bologna1-1LazioCoppa Italia
2025-12-07Lazio1-1BolognaSerie A
2025-03-16Bologna5-0LazioSerie A
2024-11-24Lazio3-0BolognaSerie A
2024-02-18Lazio1-2BolognaSerie A
2023-11-03Bologna1-0LazioSerie A
2023-03-11Bologna0-0LazioSerie A
2023-01-19Lazio1-0BolognaCoppa Italia
2022-08-14Lazio2-1BolognaSerie A

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Before and after this match