Angers vs Nice preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Angers and Nice, the probabilities show Nice at 44% to win compared to Angers at 30%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring with an 8% probability. Angers has struggled recently with a record of L-D-L-L-W-D, while Nice has been more consistent, recording W-W-L-W-W-L in their last six matches.
Both teams are expected to score, with our model indicating a 68% chance for both teams to find the net. The expected goals are closely matched, with Angers at 1.68 and Nice at 1.74. This tight forecast suggests a competitive match, but Nice's recent form and head-to-head advantage with 3 wins in the last 4 encounters could sway the outcome.
Why this pick: Angers vs Nice
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Angers 10, Nice 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Angers vs Nice: model vs market
| Source | Angers | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39% | 23% | 39% |
| Market | 27% | 26% | 46% |
| Published | 30% | 25% | 44% |
| Edge | +3% | -1% | -2% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Angers vs Nice odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Nice, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Angers | 3.42 | 3.48 | +0.06 |
| Draw | 3.62 | 3.65 | +0.02 |
| Nice | 1.98 | 2.02 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Angers and Nice expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.42
- Attack rating (Angers / Nice)
- 0.86 / 1.05
- Defence rating (Angers / Nice)
- 1.32 / 1.21
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Angers vs Nice score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Angers goals. Columns: Nice goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Angers vs Nice goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 68%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Angers vs Nice
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Angers | 30% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Nice | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 33% | 3.02 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68% | 1.48 |
| No | 32% | 3.10 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Angers or draw) | 56% | 1.79 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Nice) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| Handicap -1 | Nice win by 2+ | 22% | 4.56 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Angers and Nice recent form
Angers
1W 2D 3L
Nice
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Angers at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-3
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nice away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-3
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Angers at home only, Nice away only.
Angers vs Nice head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Angers 1 · draws 0 · Nice 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Angers | 0-2 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Nice | 0-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Nice | 2-1 | Angers | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-09-01 | Angers | 1-4 | Nice | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Angers, previous: Lyon vs Angers prediction
- Nice, previous: Nice v Rennes analysis