Auxerre vs Paris FC preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Auxerre and Paris FC, the probabilities indicate a 49% chance for Paris FC to win compared to Auxerre's 26%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 10% probability. Paris FC's expected goals stand at 1.77, significantly higher than Auxerre's 1.24, suggesting a stronger attacking performance.
However, Auxerre has shown some resilience in recent matches with a record of D-W-L-W-W-L. Both teams have a 58% chance of scoring, which could lead to a more competitive match than the probabilities suggest. The recent head-to-head results show no wins for either side, with 2 draws, adding an element of unpredictability to the outcome.
Why this pick: Auxerre vs Paris FC
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Auxerre 10, Paris FC 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: model vs market
| Source | Auxerre | Draw | Paris FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 48% |
| Published | 25% | 24% | 51% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.25 vs 1.19.
- The market prices Paris FC below our published probability: +2.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Auxerre vs Paris FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Paris FC, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 3.83 | 4.28 | +0.45 |
| Draw | 3.75 | 3.97 | +0.22 |
| Paris FC | 1.88 | 1.77 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Auxerre and Paris FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.44
- Attack rating (Auxerre / Paris FC)
- 0.91 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Auxerre / Paris FC)
- 1.41 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Auxerre vs Paris FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Auxerre goals. Columns: Paris FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Auxerre vs Paris FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Auxerre vs Paris FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auxerre | 25% | 4.07 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.10 | |
| Paris FC | 51% | 1.96 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.68 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.67 |
| No | 40% | 2.49 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Auxerre or draw) | 49% | 2.04 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Paris FC) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Auxerre and Paris FC recent form
Auxerre
3W 1D 2L
Paris FC
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Auxerre at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.2 at home.
Paris FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Auxerre at home only, Paris FC away only.
Auxerre vs Paris FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Auxerre 0 · draws 2 · Paris FC 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-08 | Auxerre | 0-0 | Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Paris FC | 1-1 | Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Auxerre, previous: Strasbourg vs Auxerre: odds and pick
- Paris FC, previous: Paris FC vs Monaco: odds and pick