Brest vs Lyon preview
In the Ligue 1 fixture between Brest and Lyon, both teams have a 37% probability to win, while a draw stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%. This aligns with the expected goals, where Brest is forecasted to score 1.76 and Lyon 1.34, indicating a competitive match.
Brest's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Lyon has 3 wins in the same span. This could influence the outcome, as Lyon has a slight edge in head-to-head results with 3 wins out of the last 6 encounters. However, Brest's home advantage could challenge Lyon's momentum. Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals are each predicted at 61%, suggesting a potentially high-scoring affair.
Why this pick: Brest vs Lyon
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Brest 10, Lyon 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Brest vs Lyon: model vs market
| Source | Brest | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 26% |
| Market | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Published | 37% | 25% | 37% |
| Edge | +4% | -1% | -4% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.51, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.1% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Brest vs Lyon odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Lyon, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brest | 2.75 | 2.84 | +0.09 |
| Draw | 3.60 | 3.52 | -0.08 |
| Lyon | 2.30 | 2.42 | +0.12 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Brest and Lyon expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.96
- Attack rating (Brest / Lyon)
- 1.25 / 1.07
- Defence rating (Brest / Lyon)
- 0.88 / 0.88
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Brest vs Lyon score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Brest goals. Columns: Lyon goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Brest vs Lyon goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 61%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Brest vs Lyon
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Brest | 37% | 2.69 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 | |
| Lyon | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.56 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 61% | 1.63 |
| No | 39% | 2.60 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Brest or draw) | 63% | 1.60 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Lyon) | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Handicap -1 | Lyon win by 2+ | 11% | 9.20 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Brest and Lyon recent form
Brest
2W 1D 3L
Lyon
3W 0D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Brest at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Lyon away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Brest at home only, Lyon away only.
Brest vs Lyon head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Brest 2 · draws 1 · Lyon 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Lyon | 2-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Brest | 0-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-02 | Lyon | 2-1 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-11 | Brest | 2-1 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-14 | Lyon | 4-3 | Brest | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-09-23 | Brest | 1-0 | Lyon | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Toulouse v Strasbourg — match page 2026-11-06
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Brest, previous: Lorient vs Brest prediction
- Lyon, previous: Real Sociedad v Lyon analysis