Toulouse vs Strasbourg preview
Toulouse faces Strasbourg with a 49% probability of winning compared to Strasbourg's 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with Toulouse's expected goals of 2.06 against Strasbourg's 1.02. This suggests a strong offensive performance from Toulouse, supported by their recent form of D-W-D-W-D-L.
However, Strasbourg's recent form shows a troubling trend with 4 consecutive losses, followed by a draw and a win. Their head-to-head record also favors Toulouse, who has 2 wins in the last 6 encounters compared to Strasbourg's 3. While Toulouse's chances appear solid, the unpredictability of football means that any sudden improvement from Strasbourg could alter the expected outcome.
Why this pick: Toulouse vs Strasbourg
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Toulouse 10, Strasbourg 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg: model vs market
| Source | Toulouse | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50% | 23% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
| Published | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Edge | +1% | 0% | -1% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.35.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.10, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.9% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Toulouse vs Strasbourg odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Toulouse, 20 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.91 | 2.06 | +0.16 |
| Draw | 3.85 | 3.77 | -0.08 |
| Strasbourg | 3.75 | 3.30 | -0.45 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Toulouse and Strasbourg expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.13
- Attack rating (Toulouse / Strasbourg)
- 0.99 / 1.09
- Defence rating (Toulouse / Strasbourg)
- 0.99 / 1.12
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Toulouse goals. Columns: Strasbourg goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 62%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Toulouse vs Strasbourg
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Toulouse | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.08 | |
| Strasbourg | 28% | 3.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 | 39% | 2.58 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| No | 38% | 2.62 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Toulouse or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Strasbourg) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Toulouse win by 2+ | 24% | 4.16 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Toulouse and Strasbourg recent form
Toulouse
2W 3D 1L
Strasbourg
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Toulouse at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-1-2
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Strasbourg away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-0-4
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 1.60
- Goals against / match
- 2.60
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 5
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Toulouse at home only, Strasbourg away only.
Injuries & availability
Toulouse absences
-
A. Donnum
yellow cards
- M. Niflore knee injury
- R. Messali thigh injury
Strasbourg absences
- F. Balde leg injury
-
J. Panichelli
knee injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider; confirmed line-ups appear about 40 minutes before kick-off.
Toulouse vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Toulouse 3 · draws 2 · Strasbourg 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-12-06 | Toulouse | 1-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-03-16 | Strasbourg | 2-1 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2025-01-12 | Toulouse | 1-2 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2024-04-07 | Toulouse | 0-0 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Strasbourg | 2-0 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2023-01-29 | Strasbourg | 1-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| 2022-10-23 | Toulouse | 2-2 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2020-02-05 | Toulouse | 0-1 | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 |
| 2019-12-07 | Strasbourg | 4-2 | Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
- Auxerre vs Paris FC 2026-11-07
- Paris Saint Germain vs Estac Troyes — team news & stats 2026-11-07
- Rennes vs Lille 2026-11-08
- Angers v Nice — match page 2026-11-08
- Brest vs Lyon — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Le Havre v Lorient — match page 2026-11-08
- Le Mans vs Monaco — team news & stats 2026-11-08
- Lens vs Marseille 2026-11-08
Before and after this match
- Toulouse, previous: Marseille – Toulouse, 2026-11-01
- Strasbourg, previous: Strasbourg vs Auxerre: odds and pick